When money is on the line, people tend to eliminate the noise and get down business.
Perhaps that’s why Vegas likes Indiana’s preseason chance to make a third straight trip to the College Football Playoff much more than ESPN’s FPI.
In fact, Indiana has the most significant make the CFP spread of any team when comparing Vegas vs. FPI. Using the consensus odds at Action Sports Network and comparing to FPI, IU has an approximately 18 percentage point better chance in Vegas (75% vs. 57%).
Here are a few other variations when comparing Vegas to FPI as it relates to IU:
- Win national title: Vegas -11.4%, FPI – 6.6%
- Win Big Ten: Vegas – 28.6%, FPI – 18.7%
- Win total: Vegas – 10.5, FPI – 10.1
You can thank ESPN for giving IU coach Curt Cignetti something else to stew over here. After all, he’s always looking to have a chip on his shoulder. He’ll have a mountain of chips when it come to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are seemingly favored over IU across the board despite losing to the Hoosiers in 2025, playing a more difficult schedule, and having to play in Bloomington on Oct. 17.
The primary noise in ESPN’s FPI appears to be that it is still taking into account IU’s 2022 and 2023 seasons, which of course were very poor and have no relevance to the 2026 squad. Sports book know this, of course, and completely eliminate those years from their projections. Perhaps in this transfer portal era, ESPN should do the same.
IU Football Offseason essentials:
- 2026 schedule
- Depth Charts: Offense / Defense
- 2026 position previews
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