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    Here’s where IU football is ranked in ESPN’s updated Football Power Index for 2026

    Mike SchumannBy IU Football 17 Comments
    Photo by Owen Graham for TDH

    As we approach the start of the 2026 season, ESPN has updated its popular College Football Power Index (FPI) this week.

    And the computer model doesn’t see Indiana as the most likely team to win what would be a repeat national title.

    In fact, FPI says five teams have better championship odds that the Hoosiers.  Here are the top-six:

    1. Ohio State
    2. Texas
    3. Notre Dame
    4. Oregon
    5. Georgia
    6. Indiana

    FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.  Ohio State’s FPI score is 28.7, while Indiana is 23.1.  FPI becomes the basis for ESPN’s week-by-week game predictions.

    The model predicts IU will win 10.1 games, has a 9.5% chance to go 12-0, and a 99.4% chance to win six games to become bowl eligible.

    FPI says IU has an 18.7% chance to win the Big Ten, a 57% chance to make the College Football Playoff, a 12.8% chance to reach the national title game, and a 6.6% chance to repeat as champions.

    Indiana’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 33 by FPI.  10 Big Ten teams have more difficult schedules.

    Like most people, the preseason edition of the model has been way off vis-a-vis the Hoosiers recently.  Here’s where IU was ranked by FPI ahead of the last two seasons:

    • 2025:  No. 31 overall / No. 8 Big Ten
    • 2024:  No. 77 overall / No. 18 Big Ten

    Here is where every team on Indiana’s 2026 schedule is ranked based on FPI:

    • North Texas (90)
    • Howard (N/A)
    • Western Kentucky (86)
    • Northwestern (60)
    • at Rutgers (67)
    • at Nebraska (30)
    • Ohio State (1)
    • at Michigan (15)
    • Minnesota (63)
    • USC (13)
    • at Washington (26)
    • Purdue (71)

    Here are Big Ten Power rankings based on FPI:

    1. Ohio State (1)
    2. Oregon (4)
    3. Indiana (6)
    4. USC (13)
    5. Michigan (15)
    6. Penn State (17)
    7. Iowa (25)
    8. Washington (26)
    9. Nebraska (30)
    10. Illinois (39)
    11. Wisconsin (43)
    12. Northwestern (60)
    13. Maryland (61)
    14. Minnesota (63)
    15. UCLA (64)
    16. Michigan State (65)
    17. Rutgers (67)
    18. Purdue (70)

    FPI was developed in 2013 as a way to measure team strength and predict game and season outcomes going forward.

    ESPN says FPI is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.

    There are four components to the preseason rating: prior performance, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure.  Here’s how ESPN describes each:

    — Prior performance is built off the framework of expected points added. The most recent year’s performance is by far the most important piece of information powering preseason FPI, but three more years are added to measure consistency and account for outliers in performance. The most recent year counts almost twice as much as the three years before it.

    — Returning starters on offense and defense, with special consideration given to starting quarterbacks or transfer quarterbacks with starting experience, is the second piece of information powering preseason FPI. Because starters interact with other inputs, it’s not as simple as saying an extra returning starter is worth one point. Nonetheless, a starting quarterback is worth about 3.3 points per game to a team returning an average offense (all else equal), and a transfer quarterback is given half the weight of a starter.

    — FPI uses four recruiting services — ESPN, Rivals, Scouts and Phil Steele — to measure the talent on a team’s roster and add an additional piece of information about which teams are on the rise. The addition of recruiting has been a controversial piece of FPI, but it’s worth noting that it is a very minor component that helps with prediction accuracy.

    — Coaching tenure is primarily a way to capture the addition of a new head coach. With all else equal, a team’s predictive offensive, defensive and special teams ratings will regress slightly to the mean with the addition of a new coach.

    For complete coverage of IU football, GO HERE.

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