IU basketball game day essentials: Hoosiers back home against Northwestern

Game Day Essentials:

Indiana (17-10, 8-8) vs. Northwestern (11-16, 3-13)

• Tip Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern, Tuesday
• Location: Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall (17,222), Bloomington, Ind
• Television: FS1 (Connor Onion, Jordan Taylor)
• Radio: IU Radio Network (Don Fischer, Errek Suhr, John Herrick)
• Stream: Fox Sports
• Point Spread:  Indiana is around an 8.5-point favorite
• KenPom Projected Score:  Indiana 78  Northwestern 70
• History: Indiana leads, 120-57
• Last Meeting: NU 79, IU 70 on Jan. 22, 2025, in Evanston
• Tickets (via our StubHub affiliate link)

Indiana’s losing streak to Northwestern reflects a dramatic change in the series

Northwestern’s Chris Collins

Chris Collins is in his 13th season as head coach of Northwestern men’s basketball. Across his career, he’s compiled a 205-206 overall record, all with the Wildcats.

Collins had a few impressive assistant jobs before he landed at Northwestern. He spent a season on staff with the Detroit Shock in the WNBA in 1998. Collins was hired onto Seton Hall’s staff in 1998 and was there for a few seasons. His longest tenure was with his alma mater, Duke, from 2000 to 2013.

Collins was hired as Northwestern’s head coach on March 27, 2013. Collins has had some ups and downs during his tenure, but has had a few great seasons in recent history. He led the Wildcats to 22-12 in back-to-back seasons from 2022 to 2024, and won Big Ten Coach of the Year in 2023. Overall, he’s led Northwestern to three NCAA Tournament appearances.

Northwestern’s results and roster

Northwestern’s game notes (via Northwestern Athletics)

SERIES STUFF

• Northwestern has won five straight games in the series, its longest win streak in the series since claiming five consecutive contests from 1913-15. The games from Northwestern’s last five-game win streak against the Hoosiers
• Northwestern is looking for its first six-game win streak in series history. Since 2009, the Wildcats are 16-11
  against the Hoosiers.
• Head coach Chris Collins is 10-8 in his career against Indiana. Collins holds a record of 4-5 at Assembly Hall, which ranks as the third most wins by any active Big Ten head coach in the building: Matt Painter (Purdue, 9-10) and Tom Izzo (Michigan State, 8-16).

SPEED LIMIT 65

• Northwestern is 48-5 when holding its opponent to 65 or fewer points over the last four seasons, which is the 2nd-best win% (.904) in the Big Ten Conference over that span (min. 40 games) (Purdue, .923). Dating back to last season, the team has won 15 of 16 games when doing so.

20 & 6 SEASONS

• Nick Martinelli is looking to become the first Wildcat to have back-to-back seasons of 20 points and 6 rebounds per game since Jim Burns from 1965-67. The last five Big Ten players to do so are Zach Edey (Purdue, 2022-24), Luka Garza (Iowa, 2019- 21), Glenn Robinson (Purdue, 1992-94), Steve Smith (Michigan State, 1988-90) and Glen Rice (Michigan, 1987-89).

BALL CONTROL

• Over the last three seasons combined, the Wildcats turnover percentage of 11.7% ranks fourth in the country behind Houston, Iowa and NC State. Their 8.9 turnovers per game in that span ranks third in he country trailing Virginia (8.7) and Houston (8.3)

No. 70 Northwestern’s KenPom notable numbers:

(out of 365 teams)

Tempo – No. 255 (Offense No. 159 / Defense No. 362)

Offensive Efficiency – No. 70

• Northwestern holds an effective field goal percentage of 51.2 percent on the year (No. 187). The Wildcats are shooting 32.2 percent from three (No. 274) and 52.7 percent on 2s (No. 142).  They’ve been the most productive on 2s, for they account for 53.7% of their total point distribution (No. 50).
• They struggle at getting offensive rebounds with a 27.3% rate on the season (No. 193).
• They take care of the ball very well with a 12.8% turnover percentage (No. 4).
• Northwestern is a high-assisting team with a 65.3% rate (No. 4).

Defensive Efficiency – No. 89

• Opponents hold a 50 percent effective field goal percentage against Northwestern (No. 110). Teams are shooting 32.6 percent from three (No. 100) and 50.7 percent on 2s (No. 129).
• They have given up offensive rebounds at a 34.7 percent rate (No. 327).
• Opposing teams find the most success scoring from beyond the arc, but not by a large margin compared to others. 31 percent of opponent point distribution comes from beyond the three-point line (No. 193).

OG’s Pick

Overall: 18-7

There isn’t a difference between a “must-win” and a “can’t-lose” game, but I think the latter is probably a more accurate descriptor. Losing to Northwestern wouldn’t completely kill their NCAA Tournament chances, but making the field would become much more challenging.

The main goal is to stop Nick Martinelli, plain and simple. He’s going to get his points, but the fewer the better. Along with that, the Hoosiers need to find their shot again, not just to win this game but to gain some momentum. I don’t want to look too far ahead, but I think IU deals with the Wildcats handily.

Pick: Indiana 81 – Northwestern 68

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