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Bracketology watch: Where IU basketball stands with one week to Selection Sunday

The countdown to Selection Sunday 2023 continues.  Now just one week away, it is time once again for our weekly look at where IU basketball stands in the eyes of the bracketology world.

With just the Big Ten Tournament remaining, Indiana (21-10, 12-8) finished tied for second in the league and remains solidly in the NCAA Tournament field after splitting home games the final week of the regular season against Iowa and Michigan.

The best estimate might be that Indiana is a No. 4 seed going into the conference tournament.

With a minimum of one game to go and a maximum of three, the range of possible seed lines is narrowing when it comes to where IU might land in the 2023 March Madness bracket.  The range is likely No. 3 to No. 6 at this point, with No. 4 or 5 the most likely.

Here are the first and second round host sites.  Indiana would likely need to win the Big Ten Tournament and end up a No. 3 seed to have any chance of playing near home in Columbus, Ohio.

March 16 & 18 First/Second Rounds Birmingham, AL Legacy Arena
March 16 & 18 First/Second Rounds Des Moines, IA Wells Fargo Arena
March 16 & 18 First/Second Rounds Orlando, FL Amway Center
March 16 & 18 First/Second Rounds Sacramento, CA Golden 1 Center
March 17 & 19 First/Second Rounds Albany, NY MVP Arena
March 17 & 19 First/Second Rounds Columbus, OH Nationwide Arena
March 17 & 19 First/Second Rounds Denver, CO Ball Arena
March 17 & 19 First/Second Rounds Greensboro, NC Greensboro Coliseum

Because bracketology is such an inexact art, our preferred resource is aggregator Bracket Matrix, which compiles and averages 68 prognostications to produce something resembling a national consensus.

Through Sunday, Indiana’s average at Bracket Matrix is a No. 4 seed.  They appear in all 68 brackets.  The current No. 13 seeds IU could face are Yale, Iona, Utah Valley and Toledo.

Among the 49 predictions at Bracket Matrix updated through Sunday, Indiana is anywhere from a No. 3 through 6 seed, but No. 4 in the vast majority (42 of 49).  It isn’t clear how many of those Sunday updates came before or after the win over Michigan.

Some updates have come in on Monday.  Here’s where Indiana currently stands in the eyes of some of the better known bracketologists:

  • Bart Torvik – No. 4 seed (updated Monday)
  • FOX’s Mike DeCourcy – No. 4 seed (updated Monday)
  • ESPN’s Joe Lunardi – No. 4 seed (updated Sunday after Michigan game)
  • CBS’ Jerry Palm – No. 4 seed (updated Monday)
  • Indiana based Delphi Bracketology – No. 4 seed (updated Saturday)

The 2022-23 men’s basketball season marks the fifth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 campaign as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams.

The NCAA Tournament Committee uses the NET to facilitate the selection of the field, and when it comes to Indiana, it’s an interesting data point when compared to the individual predictions.

The Hoosiers are currently No. 29 (an 11 spot week-over-week drop) according to the NET.  Last season’s No. 29 team Boise State was a No. 8 seed in the field.

Using the quadrant system for the NET, the quality of wins and losses is organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.

  • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
  • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
  • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
  • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

Here is Indiana’s current record this season by quadrant:

  • Quadrant 1:  5-8
  • Quadrant 2:  6-2
  • Quadrant 3:  4-0
  • Quadrant 4:  6-0

Indiana’s first Big Ten Tournament game will be against either Maryland, Nebraska or Minnesota.  Here is how those games would shake out according to the NET’s quadrant system:

  • vs. Maryland (Quadrant 1)
  • vs. Nebraska (Quadrant 2)
  • vs. Minnesota (Quadrant 4)

If IU wins its opener, Northwestern, Illinois or Penn State will be waiting.  Northwestern and Illinois would be Quadrant 1 games, while Penn State would be Quadrant 2.

You can always find links to the latest NET rankings and other national ranking sites and services here:

Rankings Page: Links to the Top NCAA Men’s Basketball Ranking Services Including the NET

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