ESPN has updated their Gamecast pages to include Football Power Index winning percentages for each of Indiana’s 12 games in 2024.
First, a refresher as you get back into college football season mode. Yes, it is just two weeks away.
Here is how ESPN describes FPI:
“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”
The preseason FPI is based on four primary factors: Performance over the past four seasons with the greatest emphasis on the most recent season; returning starters at quarterback and on offense and defense overall; whether a team has a returning head coach; recruiting rankings over the past four seasons.
Below are the FPI projected chance of winning for each of Indiana’s 2024 contest. There is no projection for Western Illinois, an FCS school.
What jumps off the page is that Indiana is not projected to win any Big Ten games. Of course FPI is fluid, meaning those win percentages will change as the season progresses. Right now, FPI only has the prior year data mentioned above to leverage.
Nationally, FPI ranks Indiana No. 77, and 18 of 18 in the Big Ten. Their remaining strength of schedule ranks No. 43. In the Big Ten, only Iowa and Rutgers are projected to have less challenging schedules.
(FPI ranking, out of 134)
Aug. 31 vs. Florida International (132) – 84% chance to win
Sept. 7 vs. Western Illinois (FCS, N/A) – No projection
Sept. 14 at UCLA (40) – 21.7%
Sept. 21 vs. Charlotte (116) – 74.6%
Sept. 28 vs. Maryland (46) – 37.2%
Oct. 5 at Northwestern (57) – 33%
Oct. 19 vs. Nebraska (41) – 37.8%
Oct. 26 vs. Washington (31) – 34%
Nov. 2 at Michigan State (68) – 41.2%
Nov. 9 vs. Michigan (12) – 16.9%
Nov. 23 at Ohio State (4) – 5.4%
Nov. 30 vs. Purdue (60) – 46.4%
Here are some more Indiana projections, according to FPI. With only three projected wins game-by-game, but 5.3 total, obviously there are several games FPI concludes could go either way.
- Projected record 5.3 wins, 6.7 losses
- Chance to win out: 0%
- Chance to win six games: 44.9%
- Chance to win conference: 0%
- Chance to reach Playoff: .5%
- Chance to make national championship: 0%
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