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    IU football CFP game day: Indiana at Notre Dame primer and prediction

    Mike SchumannBy IU Football 66 Comments
    Photo credit - Notre Dame Stadium

    You’ve been waiting three weeks for this.

    Okay, who are we kidding?  You’ve been waiting a lifetime.

    In what can only be described as the biggest game in program history, Indiana travels 200 miles north to South Bend for their first ever appearance in the College Football Playoff, the first CFP game of the expanded era, the first CFP game on campus, and the first ever Friday night game at Notre Dame Stadium.

    This is not a drill.  The Hoosiers are four wins from a national championship.

    Here’s everything you need to know about Indiana’s CFP Round One matchup at Notre Dame.

    No. 10 INDIANA (11-1) at No. 7 NOTRE DAME (11-1)

    • Kickoff:  8 p.m. ET, Friday
    • Location:  South Bend, Ind., Notre Dame Stadium (77,622; field turf)
    • Television: ABC/ESPN — Sean McDonough (pbp), Greg McElroy (analyst), Molly McGrath (sideline)
    • Stream:  Watch ESPN
    • Radio:  IU Football radio network
    • Odds:  Notre Dame is a 7-point favorite
    • Weather at kickoff:  29 degrees, mostly cloudy, wind 11 mph, 15% chance of precipitation
    • Series:  Notre Dame leads 23-5-1
    • Tickets:  Use our StubHub affiliate link
    • The Coaches:
      • Curt Cignetti is in his first year as the head coach at IU.  He holds a 130-36 record in his 14th season as a college head coach.
      • Marcus Freeman is 30-9 in his third season as a head coach, all at Notre Dame.

    TALE OF THE TAPE 

    THE COMPLETE CFP ROUND ONE SLATE 

    All times Eastern

    Friday, Dec. 20

    No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame | 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN

    Saturday, Dec. 21

    No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State | 12 p.m. | TNT/Max
    No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas | 4 p.m. | TNT/Max
    No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State | 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN

    Image

    NOTRE DAME 2024 RESULTS

    8/31/24 at Texas A&M W, 23-13
    9/7/24 Northern Illinois L, 14-16
    9/14/24 at Purdue W, 66-7
    9/21/24 Miami (OH) W, 28-3
    9/28/24 Louisville W, 31-24
    10/12/24 Stanford W, 49-7
    10/19/24 at Georgia Tech W, 31-13
    10/26/24 at Navy W, 51-14
    11/9/24 Florida State W, 52-3
    11/16/24 Virginia W, 35-14
    11/23/24 Army W, 49-14
    11/30/24 at USC W, 49-35

    NOTRE DAME NOTES AND NUMBERS

    Notable team stats

    • Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country in terms of turnover margin. The Fighting Irish are tied for the second-best margin in the nation, behind only James Madison, at plus-16. They’re also tied with Texas for the most takeaways in the country, with 28. IU isn’t far off at plus-15, and the Hoosiers have committed only eight turnovers all year, which is tied for third-fewest in the country.
    • The Irish rank 40th in the country in total offense, at 421.3 yards per game. IU’s defense is second in the country with just 244.8 yards allowed per game.
    • ND’s offense is much stronger on the ground than over the air. The Irish rank 10th in the nation in rushing offense, with 224.8 yards per game. But they’re 101st in passing offense, at just 196.4 yards per game. For context, Indiana is 29th in passing offense at 265.2 yards per game.
    • The Irish get a lot of chunk plays in the run game. They’ve had 16 rushing plays for at least 30 yards this season, which is tied for third in the nation. Their 10 rushing plays for at least 40 yards is tied for fourth in the country. And their seven rushing plays of 50 or more yards is tied for second.
    • Notre Dame is ninth in the nation in total defense, allowing 296.8 yards per game. Indiana is 24th in total offense, at 438.8 yards per game.
    • ND has the worst team field-goal percentage in the country this season. The Irish are just 8 for 18 on field goals this year, and they’ve had three different players attempt kicks. That could certainly be a factor in a close game.
    • Notre Dame ranks ninth in the country in red-zone defense, as opponents score on 73.3 percent of its trips inside the 20. IU has the nation’s third-best red-zone offense, scoring 93.9 percent of the time.
    • The Irish are just 112th in the nation in kickoff return average, at 16.9 yards per return. They don’t allow much going the other direction on kick returns, though — ND is seventh in the country at 15.6 opponent yards per kick return. Punt returns are similar: Notre Dame averages 5.4 yards per return (104th in the nation) and allows 4.7 yards per return to opponents (21st).

    Notable player stats

    • Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love finished 42nd in the country with 949 rushing yards on the season, and his 15 rushing touchdowns tied him for 13th.
    • ND quarterback Riley Leonard’s running ability is a big weapon. He rushed for 721 yards on the year — including sack yardage — with 14 touchdowns. Only eight quarterbacks in the country ran for more yards than Leonard this season, and only five QBs scored more rushing touchdowns.
    • ND’s leading receiver, senior Beaux Collins, has just 427 yards on the season with two touchdowns. He’d be IU’s third-leading receiver, behind Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr.. Five Hoosiers have more receiving touchdowns than Collins.
    • Irish safety Xavier Watts has five interceptions this season, which is tied for third-most in the country by an individual player. Indiana defensive back Amare Ferrell is right behind Watts with four picks. Watts is also tied for 11th in the country with 14 passes defended.
    • Indiana edge rusher Mikail Kamara has more tackles for loss than any defender Notre Dame has faced this season.
    • ND defensive lineman Rylie Mills leads the Irish with 6.5 sacks, which is tied for 50th in the country.

    See also:

    PREDICTIONS

    At the line of scrimmage, this game will be decided by Indiana’s pass protection, and their ability to stop Notre Dame’s running game.  All of that looks fairly even on paper.

    This one will probably come down to a big play on special teams, or a defensive score that turns things one way or another.

    It looks like a one score game with the outcome still in doubt late.  It could go either way.

    We’ll put our 12-0 prediction record on the line and say why the hell not.

    TDH PREDICTION:  INDIANA 24 NOTRE DAME 20

    • ESPN SP+ (Computer):  Notre Dame 28 Indiana 24 (ND 62% win probability)
    • ESPN FPI (Computer):  Indiana has a 29.6% chance to win.

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