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ESPN’s FPI predicts tough slog for IU football in 2023

The computers project an uphill battle for IU football.

At the end of spring practice, Indiana is rated No. 75 nationally in ESPN’s Football Power Index rankings, which are based on a metric that “is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.”

Based on ESPN’s metrics, the Hoosiers would lose to an average opponent by 2.9 points on a neutral field. For perspective, the No. 1 team in preseason FPI, Ohio State, has an FPI of 31.5.  Indiana and Ohio State meet to open the 2023 season.

Indiana is ranked 13th among Big Ten teams in the FPI, leading only Eastern Division foe Rutgers.  Due to relative strengths of schedule, however, the Scarlet Knights are projected to win more games than IU.

The FPI says IU has the 10th most difficult schedule in the country and gives them just a 10.7 percent chance to get to six wins.  Overall it projects 3.9 wins against 8.1 losses.

The 2023 games FPI projects IU will win are home contests against Indiana State, Akron and Rutgers.

The other nine games against Ohio State, Louisville, Maryland, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue are all seen by FPI as a greater than 70 percent chance of an IU loss.

In what could be the final season of the league’s current divisional format, Big Ten East schools forms the top three highest ranked conference programs according to the FPI, and four of the top five.

The overall FPI Big Ten rankings are as follows:

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan State
6. Minnesota
7. Iowa
8. Maryland
9. Illinois
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Northwestern
13. Indiana
14. Rutgers.

Nationally, the top-10 consists of Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Texas, Michigan, USC, Clemson, Notre Dame and Penn State.

To see Indiana’s full schedule for 2023, GO HERE.

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