With basketball season rapidly approaching, we’re going team-by-team in the Big Ten to assess where everyone stands and how things could shake out this year.
First up is Iowa, who’s looking to get back on track after snapping a streak of four consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. The Hawkeyes finished 10-10 in Big Ten play last year, earning the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They finished the regular season 18-14 overall and received a No. 3 seed in the NIT, where they defeated Kansas State in the first round before losing to Utah in round two, for a 19-15 final record.
WHO’S GONE:
- Tony Perkins (14.0 PPG) (transfer — Missouri)
- Ben Krikke (13.8 PPG) (exhausted his eligibility)
- Patrick McCaffery (8.9 PPG) (transfer — Butler)
- Dasonte Bowen (4.4 PPG) (transfer — St. Bonaventure)
- Amarion Nimmers
WHO’S BACK:
- Payton Sandfort, F (10.3 PPG)
- Owen Freeman, F (10.6 PPG)
- Josh Dix, G (8.9 PPG)
- Brock Harding, G (3.4 PPG)
- Pryce Sandfort, F (2.3 PPG)
- Ladji Dembele, F (2.2 PPG)
- Even Brauns, F (0.6 PPG)
- Carter Kingsbury, G (1.0 PPG)
- Riley Mulvey, C (Redshirt season, .9 PPG in 2022-23)
WHO’S NEW:
Transfer portal
- Seydou Traore, F (11.8 PPG at Manhattan)
- Drew Thelwell, G (10.0 PPG at Morehead State)
Freshmen (Rankings from 247Sports Composite)
- Cooper Koch, F, (No. 86)
- Chris Tadjo, F (No. 151)
RETURNING MINUTES: 54.8 percent (per barttorvik.com)
Why it will work
Sandfort is an All-Big Ten-caliber player, and Freeman is the reigning Big Ten freshman of the year. They’ll have to take on an even bigger load this season, but Iowa should feel comfortable with that. Dix could be primed for a breakout season, and Thelwell gives the Hawkeyes an experienced guard to fill in for the departed Perkins. Iowa can give opponents fits with its high-powered offense and fast tempo — UI ranked 19th in the country and first in the Big Ten last season in KenPom adjusted tempo.
Why it won’t
With Iowa, defense is always among the top concerns. The Hawkeyes finished with the second-worst KenPom adjusted defensive rating in the Big Ten last season, and given their track record under Fran McCaffery, it seems unlikely to significantly improve. Their offense has to carry a lot of weight — they went 2-11 last season when they scored fewer than 80 points. So that poses the seemingly annual question: can Iowa’s defense hold up enough to win big games? Additionally, Perkins is a big loss for UI’s backcourt. The team will need several reserves to take steps forward this season to make up that void and give the team enough depth to be competitive. If that development doesn’t happen, Iowa could have some issues.
Our take
McCaffery is tied for the third-longest tenure of any current Big Ten head coach (with newcomer Dana Altman at Oregon). Even though the team regressed last year, his Hawkeyes have been remarkably consistent throughout his time in Iowa City, at least during the regular season. It’s hard to see Iowa being bad — McCaffery’s teams have typically been in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation, if not in better shape. And if things break right, the Hawkeyes could be a tough team this year. But if they don’t get enough production outside of Sandfort and Freeman, it could be hard for them to really contend in the Big Ten, and they could end up back in the NIT.
BIG TEN OUTLOOK: Middle of the pack
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