Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza likened his matchup against Ohio State safety Caleb Downs to the legendary chess matches between Tom Brady with the New England Patriots and Ed Reed with the Baltimore Ravens in the 2000s.
Mendoza wasn’t calling himself Tom Brady, or suggesting he’s close to that level of quarterback. But his head-to-head battle with Downs on Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium could be just as fascinating as Brady and Reed going at it. Downs was named Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year on Wednesday, and he’s one of the best defensive players in the nation. He has two interceptions this year, but he’s the type of electric player who can make an instant impact and is always a threat. Mendoza will have to be aware of where Downs is at all times, and ensure that he doesn’t make mistakes in the safety’s direction.
But that’s only one interesting matchup in this huge game. Ohio State’s entire defense will face its toughest test to date in Mendoza, and plenty of other players and position groups will be paramount to success for both sides.
Here are three more key matchups to watch for between Indiana’s offense and Ohio State’s defense in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis.
Note: All grades referenced are from Pro Football Focus.
Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby vs. Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles
Ohio State’s run defense is stronger than any run defense Indiana has seen this year. The Buckeyes own the second-best run defense grade in the country (94.4), and they’ve allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game in the nation this year (81.7).
Defensive tackle Kayden McDonald has the top run defense grade in the nation among interior defenders (92.2). Indiana’s offensive line will have its hands full with him. But IU’s ability to contain OSU’s linebackers, Sonny Styles and Arvell Reese (Big Ten Linebacker of the Year), in run defense — or make them miss — could be a big key to this game.
Indiana rushing attack is also the best Ohio State has seen so far. The Hoosiers are tied for the sixth-best rushing grade in FBS (92.4), and they rank ninth in the country in rushing yards per game (229.8). Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan could certainly see this matchup and opt for a more pass-heavy game plan. But even if that’s IU’s strategy, getting something going on the ground would be huge.
Indiana has the running backs to do it. Roman Hemby is coming off one of the best games of his career, a 152-yard effort against Purdue; Kaelon Black is a tough runner capable of picking up gritty yards all game; and Khobie Martin has provided strong second-half bursts throughout the season.
Indiana pass protection vs. Ohio State pass rush
Indiana’s pass blocking grades as the second-best unit OSU has faced this season, behind Penn State. IU is tied for 16th in the country in pass block grade (79.5).
The Hoosiers, however, have seen several pass rush groups rated higher than OSU’s, which ranks 43rd in the nation (77.4). Illinois (No. 42), Wisconsin (No. 33), Penn State (No. 18), and Iowa (No. 7) all have stronger pass rush grades than the Buckeyes.
Drew Evans’ status will play a big role in determining how this matchup goes. Indiana’s left guard has graded among the best guards in the nation this year in pass protection, but he hasn’t played in the team’s last four games. Evans was available against Purdue last week, but didn’t see the field. Adedamola Ajani has started in his spot the last three games — the redshirt freshman graded very poorly in pass blocking against Penn State, but he fared much better against Wisconsin and Purdue. Still, Evans would be a big boost for Indiana’s offensive line.
Left tackle Carter Smith is a key cog for the Hoosiers. He’s one of the best offensive linemen in the nation, particularly in pass protection — his 94.4 pass block grade is second among tackles.
Ohio State is 27th in the nation with 30 sacks, while IU has allowed 15 sacks this season, 19th-fewest in the country. Senior Caden Curry was selected to All-Big Ten first team by media and second team by coaches after recording nine sacks this season, ranking fourth in the conference. Curry also owns the 12th-highest overall grade among edge defenders (90.8), and he ranks 26th in pass rush grade (86.9). He and Reese — a consensus All-Big Ten first team honoree — are two of the key OSU players to watch up front on passing downs.
But as a whole, pass rush might be Ohio State’s biggest weakness — not that it’s bad, but it’s not as strong as other areas. If the Hoosiers can keep Mendoza clean for most of the game, their offense will have chances to get rolling throughout the night.
Elijah Sarratt vs. Davison Igbinosun
Indiana’s receiving corps, overall, grade as the best Ohio State has faced this season. The Hoosiers own a 94.7 receiving grade as a team, second in the country — behind the Buckeyes, themselves. So OSU defensive backs go up against their top-rated receivers in practice every week. But this will be that secondary’s toughest test in game action thus far.
The individual matchup to zero in on is IU senior receiver Elijah Sarratt against OSU senior corner Davison Igbinosun. Sarratt’s yardage numbers on the season aren’t where he surely imagined they’d be because of his nearly three-game absence. But make no mistake: when healthy, Sarratt is IU’s top receiver and one of the best in the Big Ten.
Igbinosun and the Buckeyes have faced plenty of other strong receivers this season. Rutgers tandem KJ Duff and Ian Strong have both put up good years, but OSU held Duff to 34 yards and Strong to nine. Illinois’ Hank Beatty recorded only 48 yards against Ohio State. Washington standout Denzel Boston put up just 26.
Sarratt and the Hoosiers could be a tougher challenge because of how many different threats they have. Indiana may not need Sarratt to have a big night to win this game. But expect Mendoza to look his way in some big spots, and don’t be surprised if he becomes a difference-maker.
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