ESPN’s data driven SP+ model continues to project Indiana as the worst team in the Big Ten in the final update before the 2024 season. But that projection comes with a caveat.
Produced by that outlet’s Bill Connelly, SP+ says Indiana is the No. 81 team in the country, and last in the 18-team Big Ten. The model says IU will have the No. 91 offense, and No. 61 defense, and the No. 63 special teams.
Here is how the SP+ model forecasts the Big Ten going into the 2024 season, with 2024 IU opponents in bold.
Note that there are 134 teams in FBS in 2024.
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
6. Penn State
7. Michigan
21. USC
24. Iowa
26. Wisconsin
32. Washington
37. UCLA
42. Nebraska
46. Maryland
47. Minnesota
49. Rutgers
61. Illinois
68. Purdue
71. Michigan State
75. Northwestern
81. Indiana
Indiana also faces Florida International (SP+ No. 127), Charlotte (No. 126) and Western Illinois (FCS) in 2024
SP+ is a form of power rankings based on data.
This is how Connelly describes the model:
It’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. It is a predictive measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football, not a résumé ranking, and, along those same lines, these projections aren’t intended to be a guess at what the AP Top 25 will look like at the end of the year. These are simply early offseason power rankings based on the information we have been able to gather to date.
Connelly says the SP+ projections stem from three primary questions: How good has your team been recently? How well has it recruited? And who returns from last year’s roster?
But here’s what’s worth keeping in mind when it comes to IU in 2024.
While one of the main factors contributing to the model is the recent performance of the program, SP+ has no input to account for a coaching change. So the fact Indiana has a new head coach in Curt Cignetti, and 47 new scholarship players, may make the Hoosiers a bit of a wildcard for SP+.
Further to that point, James Madison, which lost Cignetti and most of their top players, is ranked 56th.
Due to spring roster additions, Indiana has moved up nine spots in the SP+ model from February. Indiana’s returning production, which includes transfers, jumped 10 percentage points since then.
The biggest factor in the SP+ model is returning production. At 66% overall returning production, Indiana ranks 45th (out of 134 teams) when it comes to overall returning production. That includes 66% on offense (50th), and 66% on defense (43rd).
This is how the entire Big Ten ranks in returning production for the 2024 season:
(Teams IU plays in 2024 are in bold)
- Iowa – 79%
- Rutgers – 72%
- Minnesota – 70%
- Nebraska – 69%
- Oregon – 69%
- Wisconsin 68%
- UCLA – 67%
- Penn State – 67%
- Indiana – 66%
- Ohio State – 65%
- Illinois – 63%
- Purdue – 63%
- USC – 61%
- Michigan State – 61%
- Northwestern – 59%
- Maryland – 50%
- Washington – 42%
- Michigan – 41%
For complete coverage of IU football, GO HERE.
The Daily Hoosier –“Where Indiana fans assemble when they’re not at Assembly”
- Find us on Facebook: thedailyhoosier
- You can follow us on Twitter: @daily_hoosier
- Seven ways to support completely free IU coverage at no cost to you.
