Indiana football has a chance to continue its run of historic achievements.
The Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0 Big Ten) take on Penn State (3-5, 0-5) on Saturday at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. The game kicks off at noon ET and airs on FOX. IU has never won a road game at PSU, as the Nittany Lions have racked up 13 straight home wins in the series. Indiana’s beaten Penn State just twice, in 2013 and 2020.
PSU enters Saturday on a five-game losing streak, a stunning collapse for a team ranked among the best in the nation entering the season. That meltdown led to the program firing head coach James Franklin after three losses, and interim head coach Terry Smith hasn’t fared much better. This is Penn State’s first home game since the coaching change. This will also be Curt Cignetti’s first time playing against Penn State with the Hoosiers.
Here are three key matchups to watch for in this important game for IU.
Note: All grades referenced are from Pro Football Focus.
Indiana receivers vs. Penn State secondary
PSU’s secondary has struggled mightily in coverage during the team’s losing streak.
The Nittany Lions posted a solid coverage grade in their first loss, against Oregon. But the four games since then have seen them record four of their five lowest coverage grades all season, including a season-worst 36.1 last week against Ohio State. Both of OSU’s star wide receivers, Carnell Tate and Jeremiah Smith, put up big numbers against Penn State.
PSU’s cornerbacks have simply had a rough season.
So this Saturday should be another opportunity for Indiana’s receiving corps to shine. Elijah Sarratt is tied for second in the country with 10 receiving touchdowns, and Omar Cooper Jr. leads Indiana with 669 yards on the season, which ranks sixth in the Big Ten. E.J. Williams Jr. has proven to be a good third option, and tight end Riley Nowakowski has been able to break off some big plays this season as well.
The Nittany Lion pass defense, on the whole, has still performed well this season, allowing 166.4 passing yards per game, 14th-fewest in the country. The pass rush has a lot to do with that. But their issues in the secondary could still provide chances for Sarratt and Cooper to make some big plays, just as Tate and Smith did last week.
Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby vs. Penn State run defense
Just like the pass defense, PSU’s run defense had a couple good outings at the beginning of the year. But the Nittany Lions have displayed major regression in that facet of the game.
They posted a 75.2 run defense grade last week against Ohio State, and that was their best grade since week 3. The four preceding games of their losing streak featured, frankly, poor run defense. And that’s reflected in Penn State ranking 90th in the country and 14th in the Big Ten by allowing 159.4 rushing yards per game.
Enter Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby, one of the Big Ten’s strongest running back tandems this year. They’re one of just two duos in the conference to each have more than 600 yards rushing on the season, joining Michigan’s Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall. IU is also the only Big Ten team with three players rushing for at least 360 yards this season, with Black, Hemby, and Khobie Martin. Additionally, Indiana’s offense owns the top run blocking grade in the country this season.
These numbers all point to Indiana leaning on its running game for a third consecutive game, with a good chance at further success.
IU pass rush vs. Penn State pass protection
Penn State’s offense has been rough throughout the losing streak, but particularly since quarterback Drew Allar’s season-ending injury.
But the one area in which PSU has remained solid offensively is pass blocking. The Nittany Lions own the 11th-best pass blocking grade in the country this season (80.1). Left guard Olaivavega Ioane has the top individual pass block grade in the nation among guards (92.9).
Of course, redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer hasn’t been able to do much with the protection. But Indiana’s defense is at its best when it’s generating consistent pressure on the opposing quarterback, and that might not be easy this week. The Hoosiers recorded only one sack last week against Maryland’s Malik Washington, but they made him uncomfortable all day and forced other mistakes.
IU’s pass rush has the 13th-highest grade in the country. Penn State has faced two opponents ranked above the Hoosiers in pass rush grade: Nevada (No. 6) and Iowa (No. 9). But Indiana has a more complete team than those other opponents to go along with the strong pass rush.
It’s another week for Bryant Haines where his defensive front needs to set the tone.
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