This one was circled in the preseason. But Indiana at Penn State looks nothing like what we were expecting.
The now No. 2 Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0) will face the preseason No. 2 Nittany Lions (3-5, 0-5) Saturday afternoon at Noon ET inside Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pa. (FOX).
Indiana has never won at Penn State and is 2-25 all-time in the series. IU’s last win came in the dramatic 36-35 Michael Penix pylon reach overtime classic in 2020. In the most recent meeting, PSU won 33-24 at Beaver Stadium in 2023.
Penn State’s season has been nothing short of a complete disaster. After a 3-0 start against three non-Power 4 opponents, the Nittany Lions lost 30-24 at home to Oregon — and then the wheels came off. They shocked the college football world with a loss at UCLA the following weekend. And then Penn State lost at home to Northwestern, a game in which starting quarterback Drew Allar was lost for the season, and after which head coach James Franklin was fired.
Since then PSU has lost on the road to Iowa and Ohio State. Their 38-14 loss to the Buckeyes was their first defeat by more than six points.
This Saturday will be Penn State’s first home game since firing Franklin. They had an announced crowd of 108,121 against Northwestern at their mammoth home facility. Irrespective of how their season is going, Penn State is talented and playing in their venue is never easy.
“I’ve been to Happy Valley,” IU running back Roman Hemby said on postgame radio Saturday. “I know what the environment is like. I know we have to be ready. We’ll dive into the film. We have our work cut out for us. We’ll figure out what will help us be successful.”
Penn State associate head coach Terry Smith is serving as interim head coach for the remainder of the season. He played wide receiver for the Nittany Lions from 1987-91. He was a high school head coach, but this is his first time leading a college program.
The PSU AD — former IU football player Pat Kraft — is leading a national search for the next head coach. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, a Pennsylvania native, received a raise and a contract extension soon after Franklin was fired.
The Nittany Lions are No. 49 in scoring offense at 31.5 points per contest. They’ve only scored 24 a game during the five-game losing streak. They are No. 41 on defense, giving up 21.8 per game.
PFF grades Penn State as having the No. 62 offense and No. 29 defense in the country.
6-foot-2 freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer has taken over as quarterback for the Nittany Lions. He has completed 42 of 67 throws (62.7%) for 343 yards, with one touchdown and three interceptions this season. He’s been sacked five times in two full games as the starter. Grunkemeyer’s average depth of target is just 6.0, compared to 8.2 for Allar.
So what’s the outlook for this Saturday in University Park? As has been the case for several weeks in a row, everything is pointing to the Hoosiers by a wide margin.
As of Monday morning, the gambling forecast is calling Indiana a roughly 14-point favorite at Penn State.
ESPN’s FPI model gives IU an 82.7% chance to win. The Hoosiers are No. 2 in FPI while Penn State is No. 22. ESPN’s SP+ model projects a 32-21 IU win, and gives them a 77% probability to pull it out.
The early weather forecast for Saturday is calling for a mostly cloudy day with a high temperature of 54 degrees and a 24% chance of rain. Obviously you’ll want to check back on that later in the week.
We will of course have much more on this game in the days to come.
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