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    The Daily Hoosier

    Bracketology: IU basketball’s NCAA Tournament chances with under five weeks to Selection Sunday

    Mike SchumannBy Mike SchumannFebruary 9, 2026 IU Basketball 9 Comments
    Photo credit: Indiana Athletics
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    With Selection Sunday now less than five weeks away, we are once again taking a weekly look at the Hoosiers’ chance to make the Big Dance.

    Indiana remains solidly in the NCAA Tournament field after a 1-1 week in the Big Ten.  But they’ll need more wins, including tonight vs. Oregon, to stay comfortable.

    Once again, the NET rankings serve as the primary sorting tool for Division I men’s basketball, and they play an important role in establishing a team’s resume.

    The 2025-26 men’s basketball season marks the eighth year of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams.

    Two main tools are utilized in the NET rankings.  The Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating similar to KenPom/Torvik. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played.

    Using the quadrant system, the quality of wins and losses are organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.

    • Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
    • Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
    • Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
    • Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

    The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

    Over the last week, IU picked up a Quad 2 win over Wisconsin, and suffered a Quad 1 loss at USC. Here is their current record as of Feb. 9 by Quadrant:

    • Quad 1:  2-7
    • Quad 2:  2-1
    • Quad 3:  5-0
    • Quad 4:  7-0

    Consideration is also given to “Quad 1A” performance, which are games against the top 15 ranked teams at home, top 25 on a neutral court, and top 40 on the road.  IU is currently 2-5 in those games.

    Currently Indiana is ranked No. 33 in the NET after opening at No. 11 in early December.  The No. 33 team on Selection Sunday last year was Georgia, a No. 9 seed.

    At Bracket Matrix, Indiana is included in 106 of 110 projections with an average seed of 10.02.  The site has not been updated since Feb. 6 (i.e. before the Wisconsin game), so Indiana’s standing should be slightly better.

    The NET isn’t the only measurement tool the NCAA Selection Committee considers.  There are actually seven.  Here is where IU ranks in each of them:

    (week over week change shown in parenthesis, + is an improvement)

    • NET – 33 (-3)
    • Torvik – 25 (-2, Torvik gives IU a 92.7% chance to make the field)
    • Wins Above Bubble (WAB) – 40 (-6)
    • KenPom – 35 (-2)
    • Basketball Power Index (BPI) – 28 (-3)
    • KPI – 47 (+2)
    • Strength of Record – 41 (-4)

    REMAINING SCHEDULE

    The Hoosiers have plenty of opportunities remaining to enhance their NCAA Tournament worthy resume, with four Quad-1 games remaining:

    • vs. Oregon (Q3)
    • at Illinois (Q1)
    • at Purdue (Q1)
    • vs. Northwestern (Q3)
    • vs. Michigan State (Q1)
    • vs. Minnesota (Q3)
    • at Ohio State (Q1)
    • Big Ten Tournament

    You can find links to the key metrics here, or on the IU basketball drop down menu above:

    Rankings Page: Links to the Top NCAA Men’s Basketball Ranking Services Including the NET

    For complete coverage of IU basketball, GO HERE. 

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    Mike Schumann

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    Latest Hoosier News
    • IU men’s basketball commit Chase Branham’s internal drive, passion define his hoops journey
    • IU basketball confirms the addition of German 7-footer Clemens Sokolov
    • Brendan Sorsby says he bet on IU football games to “feel more connected to game and teammates”
    • Watch: Mark Cuban talks Fernando Mendoza, state of NBA, sports betting
    • IU basketball recruiting: Hoosiers offer 2027 4-star center Lewis Uvwo
    • Updated: IU basketball’s 2027 through 2029 recruiting targets
    • IU football recruiting: 2027 3-star in-state WR Branden Sharpe commits to the Hoosiers
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