If Indiana’s lone path to the NCAA Tournament comes via winning the Big Ten Tournament, that route got ever so slightly easier over the last week.
It appears Indiana has played their way out of the first round of next week’s tournament with their current three-game winning streak.
Where they ultimately land seems like a bit of a formality at this point. In any case Indiana is going to have to win four games next week, and at some point that will likely include facing No. 1 Purdue.
A week ago Indiana’s seeding range was anywhere from N0. 5 to No. 13. That range has now tightened to No. 6 to No. 10 according to scenarios computed at https://bball.notnothing.net/. Only the No. 11-14 teams play in the Wednesday first round games, while only the No. 1-4 seeds get a double-bye. So Indiana’s journey at the Target Center in Minneapolis will commence on Thursday in the second round.
Scenarios exist that could place Indiana in each of the No. 6 through No. 10 spots.
There are five teams Indiana (9-10) could end up tied with in the final standings in various scenarios — Iowa (10-9), Michigan State (10-9), Minnesota (9-10), Ohio State (8-11) and Penn State (8-11) — though obviously not all at the same time.
Head-to-head and round-robin records break two-team and more than two-team ties, respectively, so ties will generally be helpful for the Hoosiers. They are currently 5-2 against that group of teams, and could move to 6-2 with a win over Michigan State.
It appears IU will get to the No. 6 and 7 spots with a win over Michigan State Sunday, and will land at No. 8-10 with a loss.
As the No. 6 seed, Indiana would face the winner of the No. 11/14 game, which will definitely include Michigan at No. 14. No. 11 could still be a number of teams including squads that have given IU trouble like Penn State and Rutgers.
As the No. 7 seed, IU could face a number of teams such as Minnesota or Ohio State, with the winner advancing to meet No. 2 Illinois.
If IU would end up in the No. 8/9 game, that would mean a likely first round game against one of the teams listed above they could end up tied with, and a first round win would have them facing Purdue on Friday.
The only way IU ends up in the No. 10 spot is with a loss Sunday against Michigan State, and of course they’ll end up in that same No. 7/10 game with Illinois waiting.
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