The folks who write the algorithms for ESPN’s College Football Power Index (FPI) have apparently not yet followed Curt Cignetti’s instructions.
If they Googled him, they’d know he wins much more than what their model is predicting for the 2024 season.
After six months of roster overhaul and coaching changes, FPI has been updated for 2024. And the outlook for Indiana isn’t flattering.
FPI says IU is the worst team in the 18-team Big Ten, and the 77th best team in the country.
The model does predict improvement, however, when it comes to wins and losses.
FPI is predicting 5.3 Indiana wins and 6.7 losses. A five win season would be the most for Indiana since their memorable 2020 campaign, but would also give Cignetti his first career season with a losing record.
FPI was developed in 2013 as a way to measure team strength and predict game and season outcomes going forward. It is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. IU is one of just two teams in the Big Ten, along with Michigan State, that projects to be a below average team.
Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.
Playing in IU’s favor this season is a reasonably favorable schedule. They play eight home games, and they have several of the other bottom half Big Ten teams on their slate under the new scheduling approach for the expanded conference. Indiana’s strength of schedule is ranked the 43rd most challenging in the nation, but the third easiest in the Big Ten.
Because of the schedule, IU is projected to have as many wins or more wins than four other teams in the league.
Here are some fun facts from Indiana’s current FPI projection:
- Chance to go undefeated — 0%
- Chance to win six games — 44.9%
- Chance to win conference — 0%
- Chance to make playoffs — .5%
- Chance to make national title game — 0%
- Chance to win national title — 0%
Here are Indiana’s 12 opponents, where they rank in FPI, and where they rank in the Big Ten. Again, the Hoosiers are ranked No. 77 overall, and 18th in the Big Ten.
Aug. 31 vs. Florida International (No. 132 overall — out of 134)
Sept. 7 vs. Western Illinois (FCS)
Sept. 14 at UCLA (No. 40 overall / No. 9 Big Ten)
Sept. 21 vs. Charlotte (No. 116 overall)
Sept. 28 vs. Maryland (No. 46 overall / No. 12 Big Ten)
Oct. 5 at Northwestern (No. 57 overall / No. 13 Big Ten)
Oct. 19 vs. Nebraska (No. 41 overall / No. 10 Big Ten)
Oct. 26 vs. Washington (No. 31 overall / No. 6 Big Ten)
Nov. 2 at Michigan State (No. 68 overall / No. 17 Big Ten)
Nov. 9 vs. Michigan (No. 12 overall / No. 4 Big Ten)
Nov. 23 at Ohio State (No. 4 overall / No. 2 Big Ten)
Nov. 30 vs. Purdue (No. 60 overall / No. 14 Big Ten)
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