ESPN has posted its matchup predictor to each of the Gamecast pages for Indiana’s 2025 football season.
The matchup predictor is based on the outlet’s Football Power Index (FPI), a computer model that has the Hoosiers ranked No. 25 headed into the 2025 season. Indiana moved up from No. 31 in June for reasons that aren’t entirely clear.
Here is the percentage change FPI gives Indiana to win each of their games this season:
- Old Dominion – 88.5%
- Kennesaw State – 96.4%
- Indiana State – 99.0%
- Illinois – 65.4%
- Iowa – 47.1%
- Oregon – 19%
- Michigan State – 78.9%
- UCLA – 77.3%
- Maryland – 65.4%
- Penn State – 17.3%
- Wisconsin – 66.1%
- Purdue – 86.4%
So going into the season, FPI is predicting a 9-3 year two Curt Cignetti based on the raw output. But take this with a grain of salt.
These predictions will adjust over the course of the season. For example, IU was predicted to lose to Michigan ahead of the 2024 season (just a 16.9% chance to win), and a heavy favorite by the time that game rolled around in November (87% chance to win). Indiana was No. 77 in the 2024 preseason FPI rankings, and moved into the top-10.
Here is how ESPN describes FPI:
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules.”
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, ESPN says these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure. That information allows FPI to make predictions beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses.
Here are some more Indiana projections, according to FPI:
- Projected record: 8.1 wins, 4.0 losses
- Chance to win out: 0.0%
- Chance to win six games: 96.8%
- Chance to win conference: 1.5%
- Chance to reach Playoff: 12.1%
- Chance to make national championship: 0.9%
- Chance to win national championship: .3%
- Remaining strength of schedule: No. 30
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