Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite to win the national championship Monday evening in Miami.
And after they destroyed Alabama and Oregon by a total of 69 points in their first two College Football Playoff games, you won’t find many who doubt these Hoosiers.
For head coach Curt Cignetti, that’s the problem.
A year ago Indiana completed a memorable 11-2 season that saw the Hoosiers reach the CFP but lose in the first round to Notre Dame. That was preceded by a loss at Ohio State.
Nice story, but Indiana played an easy schedule and couldn’t beat the power programs, they said.
Turning the page to 2025, IU’s nonconference schedule drew sneers and jeers. A 63-10 win over then No. 9 Illinois opened a few eyes. But they still hadn’t won a big game on the road. Certainly hadn’t defeated a blue blood with 5-star talent.
And then came the wave of undeniability.
A win at Iowa? Okay, that’s nice, but it’s just Iowa.
A win at Oregon? Oh damn. But maybe it was a fluke?
A win at Penn State? Nice, but they’re down this year. And did you see how close it was?
The postseason came, and each week they still picked against the Hoosiers.
A Big Ten Championship win over Ohio State? Impressive. But the Buckeyes were coming off a Michigan win, and focused on the CFP. Uh huh.
Still more picks against IU.
A blowout win over Alabama? A blowout win over Oregon? Okay, okay! Uncle!
Now, finally, the so-called experts figured it out.
A year ago after the Notre Dame loss, ESPN analyst Kirk Herbstreit proclaimed Indiana “was not a team that should have been on the field,” despite their 11-1 regular season.
It’s the same coaching staff, same culture and many of the same players a year later. And now, finally, after a 15-0 run to the title game, everyone has seen the light.
“They’re dominating. Right now, they’re playing as well as anybody in the sport,” Herbstreit said during his media availability ahead of the national title game.
“They’re probably as well coached as any team I’ve watched. And all year, consistently, there are very few games where you see them make mistakes. You’ve got to give them all the credit the world the way they do it.”
From imposter to college football darling?
That’s exactly what has Cignetti worried.
“I think leading up to this game, there’s been a lot of pro Indiana hype, a lot of rat poison out there,” Cignetti said Sunday in Miami ahead of the national title game.
Cignetti says he saw a viral clip of ESPN’s Holly Rowe where she gushed about Indiana’s emotional end to their final practice together in Miami Saturday evening. That’s got him on edge too.
Leaving @IndianaFootball practice. Here is the one thing I know for sure. #Hoosiers pic.twitter.com/v2i2hDAM5u
— Holly Rowe (@sportsiren) January 17, 2026
“I happened to see Holly Rowe thing on social media this morning about our guys hugging each other at the end of practice,” Cignetti said. “It is a close team. I’ve witnessed quite a bit of sentimentalism throughout the week from some of our seniors who we’ve been with quite a long time.”
It’s easier to keep an edge when everyone doubts you.
It’s easier to stay focused when you’re in the middle of a long journey, harder as you approach the finish line.
But as the world pumps his team full of praise, and his players battle the emotions of an ending that draws near, the master of battling complacency knows his final challenge of this 2025 season — a season that has reached a third week of 2026.
“I think it’s time to sharpen the saw now, throw those warm fuzzies out the door, that sentimentalism,” Cignetti said. “It’s time to go play a game against a great opponent.
“We’ve got to have a sharp edge going into this game. You don’t go to war with warm milk and cookies.”
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