With Selection Sunday now less than two weeks away, we are once again taking a weekly look at IU basketball’s chance to make the Big Dance.
And after an 0-2 week, the Hoosiers are now likely on the outside looking in. But it’s still relatively close.
The Hoosiers will now likely need a 2-0 regular season finish and a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament — something the program has rarely accomplished.
Once again, the NET rankings serve as the primary sorting tool for Division I men’s basketball, and they play an important role in establishing a team’s resume.
The 2025-26 men’s basketball season marks the eighth year of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams.
Two main tools are utilized in the NET rankings. The Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating similar to KenPom/Torvik. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played.
Using the quadrant system, the quality of wins and losses are organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.
Over the last week, IU suffered a Quad 1 loss at home to Michigan State, and a Quad 2 loss at home to Northwestern. Here is their current record as of March 2 by Quadrant:
- Quad 1: 2-11
- Quad 2: 2-1
- Quad 3: 6-0
- Quad 4: 7-0
Consideration is also given to “Quad 1A” performance, which are games against the top 15 ranked teams at home, top 25 on a neutral court, and top 40 on the road. IU is currently 2-8 in those games.
Currently Indiana is ranked No. 41 in the NET after opening No. 11 in early December. The No. 41 team on Selection Sunday last year was a 17-15 Ohio State team that was left out of the NCAA Tournament.
At Bracket Matrix on Monday morning, Indiana is included in 57 of 94 projections with an average seed of 10.96. That’s 1.24 of a seed worse than last week. IU is the fifth No. 11 seed, effectively make them a First Four team. They were in all 121 projections of the field a week ago. Most of the latest bracket updates at Bracket Matrix were made on March 1, with many of those updates likely coming before the Michigan State game.
The NET isn’t the only measurement tool the NCAA Selection Committee considers. There are actually seven. Here is where IU ranks in each of them. As you can see, the Hoosiers are trending down, and into dangerous waters.
(week over week change shown in parenthesis, + is an improvement)
- NET: 41 (-5)
- Torvik: 35 (-5, Torvik gives IU a 53.6% chance to make the field, down 35.2 percentage points from last week)
- Wins Above Bubble (WAB): 50 (-7)
- KenPom: 43 (-5)
- Basketball Power Index (BPI): 38 (-7)
- KPI: 67 (-16)
- Strength of Record: 48 (-6)
REMAINING SCHEDULE
The Hoosiers two regular season opportunities remaining to enhance their NCAA Tournament resume, including one Quad-1 game. Here’s their remaining schedule:
- vs. Minnesota (Q2)
- at Ohio State (Q1)
- Big Ten Tournament
You can always find links to the key metrics here, or on the IU basketball drop down menu above:
Rankings Page: Links to the Top NCAA Men’s Basketball Ranking Services Including the NET
For complete coverage of IU basketball, GO HERE.
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