Indiana football’s opening kickoff against Old Dominion on August 30th continues to inch closer.
Fresh off a historic season, fans are eager to see how Curt Cignetti can follow up on a College Football Playoff run with a revamped squad. With a mix of returning stars and intriguing transfers, the 2025 season carries high expectations and some degree of uncertainty.
To hold you over until that opening kickoff, your favorite student intern has returned to bring you some of his predictions heading into the 2025 season. I did this before last season as well, and if you look back on it, some projections, if not all, are laughable. However, now that I have a Cignetti season for reference, let’s see how accurate I can be this time.
Elijah Sarratt leads the team, and maybe the Big Ten, in catches and yards.
Sarratt has been thrown into top-10 receiver conversations and 2026 NFL mock drafts left and right before the 2025 season. His stock continues to rise as he heads into what should be his final year in college, and many wonder how good of a season he can put together.
As a former JMU product, expectations for Sarratt were mixed as many wondered how his game would translate to the Big Ten. As the 2024 season progressed, it was evident Sarratt was the clear-cut number one option at receiver for Kurtis Rourke, as the new teammates formed a dominant duo in the pass game.
Leading IU in receiving categories should be a no-brainer. However, leading the Big Ten is a tall task, especially with Jeremiah Smith lining up for Ohio State, who led the catch and yardage categories last season. The one thing Elijah Sarratt has over Smith from 2024 is more yards during the Big Ten season alone, and just five fewer catches.
With some uncertainty hovering over Ohio State’s quarterback situation, it would not surprise me to see Sarratt beat out Smith in some categories in the Big Ten and even earn his way into All-American honors. In the end, it’ll come down to how quarterbacks and offensive lines perform for both teams.
Confidence Level: 100% for leading Indiana, 50/50 for the Big Ten
Fernando Mendoza passes Rourke’s season passing yard total
Here’s a big one.
Kurtis Rourke’s season played a massive part in leading Indiana to its first College Football Playoff appearance and an 11-1 regular season finish. He finished third in the Big Ten in passing touchdowns and fourth in passing yards in 12 games played. Big Ten standouts Dillon Gabriel, Drew Allar, and Will Howard all had more yards, but all played at least two more games in the postseason. Rourke became the IU single-season touchdown leader with 29 and became the fifth quarterback to throw for over 3,000 yards in a single season with 3,042.
So, the most pressing question for many: Can Fernando Mendoza have that same impact?
As a transfer from Cal, Mendoza comes in with more Power 5 experience than Rourke before his stint at IU. He also eclipsed a 3,000-yard passing season last season with Cal before hitting the portal. Consequently, Mendoza came into the portal as a high-value target, ranking as the third-best quarterback portal prospect on 247Sports.
Mendoza certainly has the talent, weapons, and protection around him to manufacture some impressive numbers that challenge Rourke’s production. However, Rourke’s overall college football experience was a huge factor in leading the offense. At 21 years old, it remains to be seen if Mendoza’s transition will look as seamless as it did for Rourke.
Nevertheless, I will stand by my prediction. The more you look at Mendoza’s season at Cal, the more intriguing his upcoming season with Indiana becomes. Cal allowed the most sacks in FBS with 50, and Mendoza still managed a 3,000-yard passing season. Mendoza also didn’t lose a step in accuracy, completing 68.7% of his passes for 16 touchdowns. With a combination of some impressive arm talent and a better offensive line, Mendoza could pass Rourke’s total a season ago.
Confidence Level: 65%. It’s certainly possible, but a lot has to go right.
Aiden Fisher makes a case for Consensus (or better?) All-American selection
Aiden Fisher had one of the smoothest transitions from Sun Belt football to the Big Ten, along with fellow All-American selections Mikail Kamara and D’Angelo Ponds. Fisher totaled 118 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss for the Hoosiers last season. He quickly became one of the key anchors for the defense.
His numbers earned him first-team All-American honors from FWAA and Phil Steele. However, because he was absent from the AP, AFCA, and the WCFF selections, Fisher missed out on the consensus selection, which would’ve made him Indiana’s first linebacker selection with that distinction.
The Big Ten is losing a lot of its linebacker production from last year. Two of the notable departures are Jay Higgins and Carson Schwesinger, who both heard their names called in the last NFL draft and were named All-American selections. Take away Ohio State’s Cody Simon, who finished behind Fisher in tackles and also got drafted, and Fisher pretty much stands alone in the tackling numbers.
In last year’s prediction, I claimed it “could take a couple of seasons” for Fisher to sniff All-Big Ten honors. Now I’m giving him some credit, and I think he could even make a run for a unanimous selection. That depends on breakout stars from other teams, but if Fisher brings another season like his previous one, he could make some more Hoosier history.
Confidence Level: If the stats are similar or better, 90% for consensus and 70% for unanimous
Jamari Sharpe earns the starting spot alongside D’Angelo Ponds
I don’t want to continuously highlight the players who we know should have solid seasons, so let’s look a bit under the radar.
Jamari Sharpe has had an interesting few years at IU so far, and he’s had moments as a solid defensive back for the Hoosiers. Sharpe appeared in 12 games with nine starts as a redshirt freshman under Tom Allen, but saw a fairly limited role under Cignetti with just three starts. However, Sharpe got his chance in the Hoosiers’ biggest game last season, earning the start on the outside against Notre Dame and posting four tackles and a sack.
Outside of D’Angelo Ponds, there’s not a clear-cut starter at the corner position. However, a few of the more notable roster additions came from the secondary during the portal period. Amariyun Knighten (Northern Illinois) and Ryland Gandy (Pitt) were both highly sought-after prospects in the portal, and Knighten ranked as a top-20 cornerback transfer.
Overall, that starting spot alongside Ponds seems to be an open battle, and one that I think Jamari Sharpe could come away with.
Confidence Level: Because it’s still up for grabs, 40%.
Indiana hovers close to a College Football Playoff return
Although TDH staff predictions will come out closer to the season, I always like to take a shot at what an entire season scenario could look like for Indiana.
Before the 2024 season, I had mentioned that the week three game against UCLA was circled as my most important matchup for Indiana on an episode of our East 17th Street podcast. For me, it would be a tell as to how well Indiana could compete against the rest of the Big Ten, and just how good the roster would look against a decent program.
I have another early measuring stick for the 2025 season, and it’s probably not a surprise to anyone at this point. Indiana’s week four game against Illinois could be an indicator of how well the Hoosiers can compete against some of the more talented rosters in the Big Ten. As Seth Tow mentioned in the linked preview, Illinois returns 75 percent of its total production from last season, fresh off a 10-3 finish in 2024.
There are also a few more swing games that Indiana may have to compete a little closer than what fans were used to seeing last year. Wisconsin at home and Iowa away are never easy games to win, and with a talented Nico Iamaleava leading the Bruins this season under the direction of Tino Sunseri at offensive coordinator, it may not be the same domination fans viewed at the Rose Bowl.
However, the fact is IU has returned a lot of impactful pieces who all played a huge part in one of the best season-long runs college football has seen under a first-year head coach. Along with that, the additions made in the transfer portal only add more firepower to the roster. For those reasons, upcoming games like Oregon and Penn State aren’t just seen as automatic losses for me.
I give Indiana all three of their nonconference games, and two losses in the Big Ten for a 10-2 finish in 2025. The question is, is that good enough to make the CFP?
Confidence Level: 10-2 gets them in the CFP conversation, anything better makes them a lock.
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