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Big Ten roster overhauls: The 2022-23 outlook for Maryland

Maintaining success has never been more difficult in college basketball.  The combination of the transfer portal and the NBA Draft makes each offseason both eventful and potentially transformative for most programs.

Now that the smoke has mostly cleared following the 2021-22 season, we’ll go team-by-team in the Big Ten to assess which programs are set up for success, and who might take a step back.

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Next up is Maryland.  The Terrapins are in transition after naming Kevin Willard as their new head coach in March.  Willard recently coached Seton Hall to its fifth NCAA Tournament appearance in the last six events that were played. Having won a regular-season conference championship, conference tournament championship and earning conference coach of the year, Willard is one of 10 active head coaches in the Power 6 conferences to achieve each of the accomplishments in the last six seasons.

Maryland was just 32-31 over the last two seasons.

WHO’S GONE:

  • Fatts Russell (15.1 PPG),
  • Eric Ayala (14.7 PPG),
  • Qudus Wahab (7.7 PPG),
  • Xavier Green (2.3 PPG),
  • Marcus Dockery (1.8 PPG),
  • Simon Wright (0.5) PPG,
  • James Graham III

WHO’S BACK:

  • Donta Scott – F, (12.6 PPG),
  • Hakim Hart – F,  (9.9 PPG),
  • Julian Reese – F,  (5.7 PPG),
  • Ian Martinez – G, (2.8 PPG),
  • Ike Cornish – G
  • Pavlo Dziuba – F
  • Arnaud Revaz – F

WHO’S NEW:

Transfer Portal

  • Jahmir Young – PG, (19.6 PPG at Charlotte),
  • Donald Carey – G, (13.5 PPG at Georgetown),
  • Patrick Emilien – F (12.5 PPG at St. Francis Brooklyn),
  • Jahari Long – G, (0.8 PPG at Seton Hall)

Freshmen (Rankings from 247Sports Composite)

  • Caelum Swanton-Rodger – PF, (NR),
  • Noah Batchelor – G (No. 204)

RETURNING MINUTES:   46.9 percent (per barttorvik.com)

WHY IT WILL WORK

Willard has cobbled together a team, but let’s face it, most programs in the Big Ten have a bit of a patchwork roster.  It isn’t as if any team looks dominant on paper. Willard can put a fairly solid first five on the floor, with Young, Carey, Scott, Hart and Reese.  Success in this likely down Big Ten will be about who can generate chemistry and energy, and perhaps Willard will bring new life into the program.  Young and Carey should be able to fill in for the two biggest losses — Russell and Ayala — so if some of the less experienced players develop, the Terps could take a step forward.

WHY IT WON’T

Willard is a good coach, but arrives without the luxury of knowing the other league programs in depth, and most of his roster is unproven at the high major level.  Young put up nice numbers at Charlotte, but there isn’t much history of mid-major stats tracking to high-major when a player transfers.  Carey is the only player on the team with a proven history of making 3-pointers at a high rate.  This doesn’t appear to be a team that will have much firepower, size or depth, which could make year one a major challenge for Willard, who needed five years to get things going at Seton Hall.

HOT TAKE

A successful program in Maryland is a threat to Indiana, because the D.C. metro area has become a place where, led by assistant coach Kenya Hunter, IU is focusing its recruiting efforts.  Point guard Xavier Johnson is from there, and IU has several targets from the area including Derik Queen and K.J. Evans.  If Willard can get the Terps rolling the program may start to have more success keeping talented players from the DMV area home.

BIG TEN OUTLOOK:  Bottom third

MORE BIG TEN OUTLOOKS:


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