It would have come as a surprise to no one if Indiana followed its historic 16-0 national championship season with one of the nation’s best high school recruiting classes.
After all, IU coach Curt Cignetti has said several times the program’s recent run of success has opened many new doors on the recruiting trail.
But while Indiana’s still developing 2027 class is impressive based on the program’s own historic standards, it lacks the wow factor one might have expected.
At both Rivals and 247Sports, Indiana sits right around 30th in the national team rankings for the rising senior class, and outside the top-10 of the conference. That’s a far cry from 16-0, Big Ten champion, and national champion.
How can that be?
IU coach Curt Cignetti has been telegraphing this result over the last couple months.
Let’s start with who Indiana is not. The Hoosiers do not have one of the biggest combined NIL and revenue sharing budgets in college football.
When it was suggested by Alabama GM Courtney Morgan teams are spending more than $40 million to build championship rosters, Cignetti responded publicly IU was “not even close” to that figure. He’d later clarify IU was between $15 and $40 million, and closer to $15, and IU AD Scott Dolson told On3 in an article published this week Indiana spent $18 million on its national championship squad.
So the takeaway from all of that is pretty clear: IU doesn’t have top-end money, and it certainly doesn’t have unlimited resources. As a result, the roster budget must be managed carefully.
That leads to something Cignetti has alluded to on multiple occasions recently. He said the market for high school talent is “pretty scary” in one interview, and three to five times more expensive than a year ago in another.
So relatively limited resources in a market environment where prices are rising means one thing: tough decisions must be made. And Cignetti has said this too. He told Rich Eisen last week “you can’t really go all the way with everybody you’d like to” in terms of paying prospects.
So this is where we turn to one of Cignetti’s core philosophies as a head coach. You’ve likely heard it dozens of times by now. If there are players Cignetti is going to have to pass on because funds are limited, he’s choosing proven production over unproven potential. And in a similar vein, Cignetti has also said multiple times recently he believes it is much more difficult to evaluate high school prospects vs. college players.
So it seems fairly clear, Indiana’s budget for high school players is especially limited.
In the same On3 article, Cignetti said his approach has generally been to spend 45 percent of his money on retaining players, another 45 percent on portal players and the remaining 10 percent on high school players. 10 percent of Indiana’s total roster budget allocated across an entire high school class of 16-18 players isn’t much per player if the market for elite 4 and 5-star talent is as expensive as Cignetti is suggesting. It seems clear IU has bowed out of some bidding wars.
It’s also at least worth noting Cignetti never left campus to visit prospects during the winter, a rarity among coaches. That was due primarily to how the recruiting calendar lined up with Indiana’s run in the College Football Playoff.
Now, do we really think Cignetti’s presence at high schools would have been a more valuable recruiting tool than winning a national title? No, probably not. But it’s an interesting sidebar.
So with all of this in mind, is Indiana on a crash course back to the Big Ten basement because it won’t land 5-stars?
We think you know the answer, but it’s here we’ll remind you Cignetti has never had a losing season, and he won said national title with a roster made up of almost entirely zero through three-star recruits. By contrast, even if he keeps stacking only national top-30 recruiting classes, Cignetti will quickly assemble what will on paper be the most talented roster he’s ever had.
And the construction of this 2027 recruiting class isn’t over.
Based on everything we’ve laid out here, it might have become clear what type of high school players Cignetti will pay top dollar for: Guys who are going to be significant contributors on day one. If your resources are limited, there’s not much sense in paying starter money to a high school prospect who won’t see the field for three years, if at all.
But if you see a day one starter and are confident enough in that evaluation to pay for it, that’s where Cignetti might just get strategic.
You may have noticed IU is still firmly in the mix for in-state class of 2027 5-star wide receiver Monshun Sales. Some outlets list the Hoosiers as the favorite to land him. Sales is likely a day-one starter, and also a three-year starter because of the NFL Draft age requirements. For Indiana, he just might be the exception to the rule when it comes to paying freshmen.
Also an exception to the rule? That would be Cignetti.
He left Alabama for Division II. Turned around historically bad programs. Led a program through an FCS to FBS transition. Won a national title with a bunch of 0-stars.
So however things play out from here with the class of 2027, it’s probably not worth losing any sleep over it. After all, Cignetti said before he arrived in late 2023 he didn’t need much.
“If I just have average resources, I will win there, trust me,” Cignetti told Dolson.
For complete coverage of IU football recruiting, GO HERE.
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