Illinois coach Bret Bielema admitted last week his staff has been watching film on Indiana going back to the spring, and into their August camp.
And on his radio show last night, IU coach Curt Cignetti acknowledged the 150-mile gaze has crisscrossed the state line.
“I know they’ve had their eyes on us for a while, and we’ve had our eyes on them too,” Cignetti said.
There’s a clear mutual respect between Cignetti and Bielema. That much was apparent as they shared their public niceties during media availabilities this week. But when the ball flies off the tee just after 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, all bets are off.
Because this game has massive implications, perhaps extending even beyond this season.
By now you’ve heard about all of the glitz and glamour that surrounds No. 8/9 Illinois at No. 17/19 Indiana.
It’s just the eighth AP Poll ranked vs. ranked game ever played in Bloomington.
National television (NBC) is in town for a primetime kickoff.
The game is sold out, and and the stands will match the home jerseys with a red out theme, along with some pockets of orange and blue, no doubt.
But this game is about so much more than all that hype.
It’s easy to lose sight of how success was defined in IU football circles as recently as just over one year ago.
Prior to last year, only eight times in IU football’s inglorious first 140 campaigns did the Hoosiers reach at least eight wins in a season.
So what’s the big deal? Even with a loss to Illinois on Saturday night, a nice eight-win season, and a trip to a nice bowl game remains well within in reach.
Ah, but 11 wins in 2024, contention for the Big Ten title into the final weekend, and a trip to the College Football Playoff changed everything in the hearts and minds, didn’t it?
Under the direction of Cignetti, Indiana fans got a taste of real success in 2024, and now accomplishing something only seen in five percent of prior seasons somehow seems like a massive disappointment.
So how likely is it Indiana can carve-out a return path to the CFP if the Hoosiers lose to Illinois on Saturday night? With their next three most high profile games (Iowa, Oregon, Penn State) all coming on the road in very challenging venues — it’s unlikely. It doesn’t feel hyperbolic to say it’s highly unlikely.
The same rationale holds true for any thoughts Indiana may have about playing in the Big Ten Championship game in December. A home loss now makes getting to Indianapolis a major longshot.
While everything remained on the table at game 12 a year ago, a loss on Saturday might suck the air out of the room before the calendar hits October. And that’s a feeling Indiana fans know all too well.
Fans were dreaming big in 2021 before the Hoosiers got throttled at Iowa in week one. They were dreaming big in 1968 and 1946 too. But sustained success, hell, even year-over-year success, has always been just out of reach for the Hoosiers, in a cruel, Lucy pulls away the football at the last second, kind of way.
A loss to Illinois Saturday night will bring that seemingly inevitable sense of impending doom back to the collective Indiana frontal lobe in the blink of an eye.
The same all holds true for Illinois, a program coming off their own record-tying season with ten wins in 2024. Their current No. 9 ranking in the AP Poll is a program best since 2001. The Fighting Illini have the exact same goals as Indiana — playing in the Big Ten title game and the CFP.
But the ramifications of winning or losing on Saturday night go well beyond the 2025 season.
Historically, there hasn’t been room for teams like Indiana and Illinois among the Big Ten’s best.
Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State have been the mainstays. Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State have dabbled in the last quarter century. And now Oregon and USC are in the mix.
The Hoosiers and Illini have only on rare occasions found some scraps (hello Red Grange), and unless we’re at the precipice of some dramatic change in the college football hierarchy, there probably won’t be a regular seat at the table for both programs going forward.
The battle on the field Saturday night is also about competing for the future talent that will keep an Indiana or Illinois relevant in the national discourse for years to come.
“I would say we compete against Indiana in high school recruiting and portal windows as much as anybody else in the Big Ten, the kind of systems we both run and the players we both look for,” Bielema said this week.
The list of recruiting targets attending this game is long and impressive, headlined by Jalen Brewster, the No. 1-ranked defensive lineman in 2027.
Sure, a dazzling display by both teams similar to what we saw last weekend from Tennessee and Georgia, or Texas A&M and Notre Dame, could enhance the profile of both IU and Illinois in the eyes of recruits. But a big margin just might deliver a blow that sets the loser back beyond 2025.
But don’t tell any of the current players this game means more.
Indiana and Illinois are here in this moment precisely because they have good, experienced coaches who run smart, focused and fundamentally sound programs.
What is the magnitude of this top-20 matchup on Saturday night in Bloomington?
“This game is not anything different,” IU defensive end Mikail Kamara said this week. “It’s just the next game. We have plenty of opponents in the future. This is a big game because it’s the next game. That’s it.”
The winning team just might be the squad that collectively believes what Kamara is saying more.
But you know better.
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