Are you ready to be hurt by IU basketball again?
There are two signs to watch for this spring before you succumb to the inevitable hope that eventually captures the fan base ahead of each new season.
First, Indiana needs to operate as though it needs an entirely new starting five — because to compete at the top of the sport — it most certainly does.
Seven players can return to Bloomington for the 2026-27, but it is not reasonable to expect all seven will be back. And even if they did all come back, IU needs to operate as though none of the seven have positioned themselves as starters in 2026-27.
Trent Sisley, Nick Dorn and Jasai Miles have all shown, to varying degrees, they can be contributors on a high major college basketball team. But none of them have shown convincingly they are ready to start next season. That needs to be earned over the next seven months, not given.
Sisley just completed his freshman season and had some impressive moments. He has the highest ceiling of anyone eligible to return. It’s not entirely clear why his role plummeted as his first year wore on. He seemed to lose confidence, and at times missed some defensive assignments. Typical freshman stuff. But Sisley had 15 points and five rebounds against Marquette, 12 points and five rebounds against Kansas State, and 10 points and four rebounds against Washington. He didn’t forget how to play basketball. He’ll be fine over the long haul.
Dorn started the season injured and didn’t get rolling until December. It can be argued he’s the reason IU beat UCLA and Purdue. He had a four-game stretch in January in which he averaged 20.5 points and shot 20 of 43 from three. That earned him a starting role. But over the final 10 games of the season, Dorn averaged just five points and shot 25% from three. If he wants to start next season, he’ll have to become a much more consistent shooter, in addition to becoming a better defender, rebounder and scorer inside the arc. That’s a lot to expect.
Miles flashed potential as a very good on ball defender. He was getting the most challenging assignments late in the season. With IU struggling to guard, Miles earned 12.3 minutes per game over the last 13 contests. But he didn’t shoot the ball well and fouled excessively, mitigating his impact. He did pull down 8.1 rebounds per-40 minutes. If he’s willing to accept a role, Miles can develop into a positive contributor in a second season in DeVries’ system.
And we barely even know the other four potential returners. Josh Harris, Jason Drake and Andrej Acimovic all took redshirt seasons in 2025-26, meaning they didn’t play a minute. And Aleksa Ristic played a grand total of 31 minutes. It’s not reasonable to expect a massive leap (i.e. into a starter’s role) from any of these four, if they return.
Moreover, while IU has a national top-20 incoming freshman class, none of Vaughn Karvala, Trevor Manhertz or Prince-Alexander Moody project as instant impact starters.
So where does this leave us?
It’s pretty simple.
IU can only obtain an elite starting five and truly make a splash next season if it has the resources to do so.
At this time last year, Indiana was late to the game after hiring Darian DeVries and his staff, so it’s difficult to know how much influence a lack of resources played.
But the Hoosiers certainly did not enter high profile recruitments late, assert their financial will, and land a roster full of elite talent. The lone exception would be Lamar Wilkerson, who IU spent well into seven figures to obtain.
It’s going to take five Lamar Wilkerson recruitments this time. And it might take in the neighborhood of $6 to 10 million, maybe more, just to field a new starting five that is truly capable of putting this program where fans expect it to be — in the top-four of the Big Ten, and in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. That’s just the reality when suffering from a serious lack of returning production.
And that means Indiana will have to be among the national leaders in NIL. There are clues that’s at least in the realm of what’s possible.
Recently IU AD Scott Dolson referred to Indiana’s 2025-26 roster as a group that was just meant to “get us through this season.” With a staff in place for a year and new GM Ryan Carr orchestrating the roster building process, Indiana should be in a much better position to attack the transfer portal this spring. And in the end, there can be no perceived gaping roster holes, like a lack of Big Ten size and rim protection, lack of shooting or lack of elite point guard play. All of that stuff eventually gets exposed.
But that takes big money. What about resources?
While appearing to excuse DeVries’ first team, Dolson says the expectation is DeVries and his staff will hit their stride right now. It’s another reason they aren’t playing in the Crown or any other postseason tournament. There’s no reason at this point to distract from the mission ahead. And Dolson probably wouldn’t say that without a reasonable expectation the funds are available to back up the claim. The words are idle otherwise.
In Pam Whitten, Indiana has a president clearly invested in athletics. Moreover, multi-billionaire alumnus Mark Cuban is on board, and IU has a large alumni base with many older, wealthy contributors who want to see the basketball program return to the former glory they grew up knowing.
But you don’t have to wonder if Indiana has the resources to compete at the top of the sport.
You’ll find out over the next six weeks.
Which transfer portal recruitments is IU competing in? Who are they getting on campus for visits? Are they addressing every starting position like a program on a mission? Are they closing? It will all become clear very soon.
Transfer portal recruiting is not nearly as complex as many make it out to be, especially when you’re like Indiana and have clear playing time to offer. Many players only visit one school. Love it or hate it, these are often single-year, highest-bidder financial transactions in 2026.
And soon we’ll know if Indiana has what it takes to compete.
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