By the end of Friday night, Indiana football will know its Rose Bowl opponent.
No. 8 seed Oklahoma hosts No. 9 seed Alabama in the first round of the College Football Playoff Friday at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman. The winner advances to Pasadena, Calif. to face the Hoosiers on New Year’s Day. Curt Cignetti, his staff and players, and plenty of IU fans will have close eyes on this SEC matchup, as Indiana prepares for its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1967.
The Crimson Tide are getting a second crack at the Sooners here — OU defeated Alabama 23-21 in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 15.
Here are some key matchups to watch for Friday evening, all of which could be notable things in potential matchups with Indiana.
Ty Simpson vs. Oklahoma secondary
Oklahoma’s defense has forced only 13 turnovers this season, tying for 94th in the country. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has thrown only five interceptions this season — one of those came against OU in November. The Sooners had six games this season without an interception, with the last two such instances turning into losses to Ole Miss and Texas.
Alabama’s receivers — particularly Germie Bernard and Ryan Williams — are talented, but haven’t put up the numbers expected of them early in the season. Tight end Josh Cuevas is listed probable on Thursday’s injury report, and he’s a vital piece for the Tide. Cuevas led Alabama with 80 receiving yards on six catches and a touchdown in the regular season game against OU.
But this particular matchup has the most to do with Simpson. Four of his five interceptions have come in Alabama’s last four games of the season. Oklahoma’s defense doesn’t force many turnovers, but some of that is typically bad luck which could swing the other way at any given moment. If Simpson plays more like the guy who threw just one interception in his first nine games this year — the guy who was once Fernando Mendoza’s biggest competition for the Heisman Trophy — Alabama could be in good shape. But if Simpson is making mistakes, the Tide could be in trouble.
Alabama rushing attack vs. Oklahoma run defense
In the SEC Championship game, the Tide finished with -3 rushing yards against Georgia. The Bulldogs have a stingy run defense, and Alabama didn’t have starting running back Jam Miller, but -3 rushing yards was a concerning figure.
Miller returns for this game, which will certainly help Kalen DeBoer’s team. But still, he rushed for only 4.01 yards per carry this season across nine games played. For context, each of Indiana’s three leading rushers finished well above that (Roman Hemby, 5.22 YPC; Kaelon Black, 5.63 YPC; Khobie Martin, 6.46 YPC).
OU has given up just 81.4 rushing yards per game this season, fifth-fewest in the country. That’s only two yards per game more than the Georgia defense who just locked down the Tide on the ground. Alabama doesn’t need to have a monster night running the ball to pull out this game, but repeating what happened in Atlanta — or even coming close to that — would give the Sooners a huge advantage.
Isaiah Sategna III vs. Red Morgan
This is one of the bigger individual matchups on the other side, when Oklahoma’s on offense and Alabama’s on defense.
Sategna is one of the most dynamic players on both of these teams. He tied for second in the SEC this season with 948 receiving yards, on 65 catches with seven touchdowns. He finished the regular season strong, putting up over 100 yards and a touchdown against both Missouri and LSU. Sategna is really good at picking up yards after the catch — per Pro Football Focus, he’s racked up 513 total YAC this year, good for ninth in the country. 371 of those 513 yards have come on throws either behind the line of scrimmage or nine yards or shorter.
Morgan came on in the second half of the season for Alabama, and his best game came against the Sooners. Sategna recorded only four receptions for 26 yards against the Tide, his second-worst yardage output this season.
Oklahoma does have other receiving options — outside receiver Deion Burks and tight end Jaren Kanak both posted over 500 yards this year. Quarterback John Mateer doesn’t necessarily need a big game from Sategna for this offense to click; the slot receiver finished with just 44 yards in one of OU’s biggest wins of the season, over Michigan in week 2. And Sategna’s best game of the year came in a loss to Ole Miss, though that can be attributed to Oklahoma’s defense allowing a season-high 34 points.
But, when the Sooners have Sategna rolling, their offense is significantly more dangerous.
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