Indiana football is set for one of the biggest games of the year.
The seventh-ranked Hoosiers (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) are traveling west this weekend to take on No. 3 Oregon (5-0, 2-0) at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore. This contest could go a long way towards determining College Football Playoff fates — along with Big Ten championship hopes — for both sides. An IU win would rank among the most significant in program history.
Here are three key matchups that could play a part in deciding this game.
Indiana pass rush vs. Oregon interior offensive line
Indiana has made noise during the week about overcoming a size difference, seemingly taking it as a slight.
But this is less about size, and more about skill. Oregon’s offensive line is good, particularly in pass protection. The Ducks, as a team, carry the nation’s top Pro Football Focus grade for pass blocking. Guards Dave Iuli and Emmaneul Pregnon rate seventh and eighth, respectively, in the country in pass blocking grade at their position. And Iapani Laloulu is seventh among centers in pass protection.
Oregon’s tackles don’t rate as highly as the interior linemen in pass pro, but this is still a matchup concern, given the way opponents have attacked IU’s defensive front this season. Mikail Kamara gets heavy attention on the outside, which has freed up the rest of the defensive line to handle business. But if the Ducks can pay Kamara extra attention while still holding things down up the middle, Indiana may not be able to get enough pressure on Dante Moore.
Hoosiers defensive coordinator Bryant Haines has to find a way to get his pass-rushers in the backfield and force some hurries, even if the plays aren’t always ending in sacks or tackles for loss. If Moore has a clean pocket all game, it could be a long night for IU’s defense.
IU running backs vs Oregon defensive front
This is the matchup advantage Indiana needs to take advantage of.
Oregon has allowed 114.8 rushing yards per game so far this season, 39th-fewest in the country. The Ducks’ PFF run defense grade ranks 63rd in the nation — for context, Iowa is 71st, Old Dominion is 74th, Illinois 79th, and Kennesaw State 58th. So while UO is one of the better run defense Indiana has faced so far, it’s still a winnable matchup.
And the Hoosiers boast the strongest rushing attack Oregon has seen so far. They’re sixth in the country at 267.8 rush yards per game, and they rank 12th in PFF run grade. IU, notably, also has the third-best run blocking grade in the nation. It’s imperative that Indiana uses this to its advantage and gets Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby rolling.
On top of the statistical edges pointing towards IU in this department, establishing the running game will help the Hoosiers from a game management perspective. Going on the road against a strong offense, Curt Cignetti and his team will want to maintain control of the clock and keep Moore and the Duck offense on the sideline. Indiana may not be a team that wants to play a ground-and-pound style of football every week, stylistically, but that could be a path to success in Eugene on Saturday.
Elijah Sarratt vs. Ify Obidegwu
Oregon’s pass defense has been stingy this season.
The Ducks have allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game in the country, at 123.4. Their pass rush doesn’t stand out, but they’ve been good in coverage, ranking 14th in PFF coverage grade. Slot corner Jadon Canady is having a great year, which could make things tough for Omar Cooper Jr. Safety Dillon Thieneman has also performed well in coverage.
But Oregon still has some weaker spots in the secondary that Fernando Mendoza could potentially capitalize on. UO’s outside cornerbacks — redshirt freshman Ify Obidegwu and true freshman Brandon Finney Jr. — grade out weaker than Canady in coverage. Cooper and Sarratt are the best receivers they’ve faced so far this season — Oregon State’s Trent Walker is eighth in the country in receiving yards per game, but he missed the Beavers’ matchup with the Ducks.
Sarratt is an obviously huge part of Indiana’s offense — a security blanket for Mendoza, someone who can break tackles and step up in big moments, and a reliable playmaker. If he’s able to consistently win his matchup against Obidegwu and Oregon’s defense, it would be big for the Hoosiers.
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