Indiana football’s showdown against Illinois has plenty at stake.
This is a tone-setter for both teams to start off Big Ten play. This top-20 matchup in Bloomington on Saturday will see one team affirm its ranking and its standing amongst the top teams in the conference, and the other will be left with work to do. The winner should get a nice boost for a potential College Football Playoff résumé.
Both No. 9 Illinois and No. 19 Indiana are good teams. Fine margins can often decide games like that.
So for this game, specifically, what could make the difference? Here are three matchups that could play a big part.
Devan Boykin vs. Hank Beatty
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is off to a strong start this season, and he has a clear favorite target through three games. Senior Hank Beatty ranks fourth in the Big Ten with 289 receiving yards, on 19 receptions with a touchdown. No other Fighting Illini has eclipsed 10 receptions or 100 yards yet.
At 5-foot-11, Beatty plays most of his snaps in the slot. Indiana has typically kept D’Angelo Ponds on the outside, even if an opponent’s top receiver plays inside. That means Devan Boykin is likely to match up against Beatty pretty regularly. The NC State transfer hasn’t graded out particularly well in coverage, with a 64.9 grade per Pro Football Focus. He’s been targeted three times, once in each of IU’s three games, and all three resulted in receptions — though the pass against Kennesaw State went for a one-yard loss.
Indiana could throw different looks at Altmyer and Beatty throughout the game, and get different defensive backs matched up with UI’s leading receiver. But Boykin will surely see action lined up against Beatty, and his ability to limit the strong Illini connection could directly determine how this game goes for IU.
Indiana pass rush vs. Illinois pass protection
This, on paper, is the biggest matchup advantage Indiana has over Illinois.
The Fighting Illini entered this year with high expectations for their offensive line, with all five starters returning. But that group has massively underperformed so far this season in pass protection — per PFF, UI ranks 89th in the country in pass-blocking. The Illini are strong in run-blocking, ranking 22nd. But that pass rushing figure is a real problem. Illinois has allowed nine sacks per game so far this season — only seven teams in FBS have averaged more than that.
IU’s pass rush, meanwhile, has looked good. The Hoosiers are 13th in the country in PFF pass rushing grade as a team — and though they’ve played a relatively light schedule so far, Old Dominion (27th) does rank much higher in pass-blocking than Illinois.
This is a head-to-head Indiana needs to control if it’s going to win this game. Mikail Kamara and co. needs to keep Altmyer under pressure on Saturday; even if it doesn’t always result in sacks, the Hoosiers need to make him uncomfortable.
Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. vs. Illinois secondary
Originally, this was keyed in specifically on Sarratt against Illinois All-Big Ten cornerback Xavier Scott. But on Thursday, Illini head coach Bret Bielema said Scott is unlikely to play Saturday following a right foot/ankle injury in the fourth quarter of UI’s win over Western Michigan. So given that news, this focus expands to IU’s receiving corps against Illinois’s secondary.
The Illini have been effective against the pass, but not exceptional. They rank 56th in the country and 13th in the Big Ten in pass defense, allowing 193.7 yards per game. But removing Scott from the secondary is a big hit, and could create an opening for Indiana to exploit. The Hoosiers are fourth in the Big Ten and 28th in the country in passing offense, at 284 yards per game. And their receivers are plenty good enough to capitalize on Scott’s absence. Sarratt and Cooper have both already put up standout performances this season, and E.J. Williams Jr. has looked good as well.
Illinois has been tough against the run early in the season, and will give IU its toughest challenge yet in establishing the ground game. But if Sarratt and Cooper — along with Williams and the rest of IU’s pass-catchers — are getting open consistently for Fernando Mendoza, the offense could be in good shape even if the running backs aren’t putting up big numbers.
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