Most sport books are putting the over/under for IU football’s projected win total in 2024 at 5.5.
But football analytics outlet Pro Football Focus (PFF) has a bit more promising outlook for the Hoosiers.
First the not so pretty. PFF has slotted Indiana in at just 87th nationally in their power rankings, with a two percent chance to win the Big Ten.
But the outlet is projecting 6.7 wins for Curt Cignetti’s first IU team. They say Indiana has a 72% chance to reach bowl eligibility.
Helping the cause is a 2024 strength of schedule that ranks 58th in the country according to PFF. IU routinely appeared in the national top-20 for strength of schedule during the divisional era of the Big Ten that brought them annual matchups against each of Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan.
One of the reasons PFF sees a revival after three straight disappointing seasons is Indiana’s success in the transfer portal during the offseason. They project 15 of IU’s 22 starters will be transfers. Three transfers they highlight as notable from a PFF grading perspective are QB Kurtis Rourke, WR Elijah Sarratt, and CB D’Angelo Ponds.
Here’s an excerpt of what PFF had to say about Rourke, who followed an elite 2022 season with a less impressive 2023 campaign after knee surgery:
Strengths: Rourke, the former MAC MVP, is a tall pocket passer who won’t lose his team games. There’s a slight windup in his delivery, but Rourke can drop balls into a bucket over the top with the best of them. He was the most accurate passer in the nation in 2022, with a whopping 68.4% of his passes deemed accurate. That figure was a full percentage point ahead of second-place finisher C.J. Stroud.
Weaknesses: The conundrum in projecting Rourke’s outlook is that his work outside of 2022 indicates a decent QB who sometimes struggles with accuracy. After leading the nation in accurate throw rate in 2022, he dropped to 100th last season.
Sarratt’s ability to catch contested passes was noted by PFF, along with Ponds’ ability in coverage.
PFF’s biggest area of concern with the Hoosiers based on last year’s individual performance grades is the offensive line. The outlet uses a PFF grade of 70 as a measuring stick, and says none of the Hoosier offensive linemen exceeded that mark beyond JMU transfer Nick Kidwell in limited action.
Indiana opens the 2024 season on Aug. 31 when they host Florida International.
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