IU football game day: Indiana vs. Miami — National Championship primer and prediction

(Via Miami Athletics)

• The two teams have not met since 1966 – a 14-7 win from the Hurricanes. The all-time series is tied, 1-1 – Indiana won the only other matchup between the two programs in 1964 (28-14, also in Miami).

• The Hurricanes are looking for their sixth national championship since 1980, which trails only Alabama (7) over that timeframe. Miami, which already has the most wins over AP top 25 foes by any team in ACC history, is looking for its conference-record and school-record eighth Monday. It is 7-0 vs. the AP top 25 entering the game.

• Miami, ranked No. 10 in all three major polls to end the year, earned the final at-large spot for the College Football Playoff after compiling an impressive resume. In its first three playoff games, it topped No. 7 Texas A&M, 10-3, in College Station, beat No. 2 Ohio State, 24-14, in the 90th Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and No. 6 Ole Miss, 31-27, in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.

• Among UM’s top performers has been QB Carson Beck, who arrived from Georgia via transfer portal. Beck, who missed spring practices while recovering from UCL surgery, has a 37-5 (.881) record as a starting FBS QB, the best of any active player (minimum five games). Beck (268 pass yards, 3 total TDs) was named Offensive MVP of the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl while DB Jakobe Thomas (five tackles, two PBUs) took home the game’s Defensive MVP honors.

• In year-end ACC awards, DE Rueben Bain, Jr. was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year, WR Malachi Toney was ACC Rookie of the Year and OL Francis Mauigoa won the Jacobs Blocking Trophy. Miami had a school-record 19 players earn All-ACC recognition, headlined by four first-team picks.

• The Hurricanes were one of eight teams in FBS to start the same five at offensive line every game during the 2025 regular season (LT Markel Bell, LG Matt McCoy, C James Brockermeyer, RG Anez Cooper, RT Francis Mauigoa). Samson Okunlola started at LG vs. Ohio State. The Hurricanes’ impressive group, named to the Midseason Honor Roll for the Joe Moore Award for the third straight year, have only 73 negative plays on offense this year – despite playing in 15 games. It was the fewest among any College Football Playoff team and the third-fewest in the ACC despite the increased game total. Miami ranks No. 4 in FBS (No. 1 in ACC) in tackles for loss allowed per game (3.13) and No. 16 in FBS and No. 2 in ACC in sacks allowed (1.27). Behind its powerful line, UM ranks No. 5 in FBS in time of possession (33:42).

• WR Malachi Toney has served as the top-performing freshman wide receiver in the country through the first 15 games of his college career. Toney is Miami’s leader in all-purpose yards, catches, receiving & punt return yards.

• RB Mark Fletcher, Jr. has totaled 395 rushing yards in three CFP games this season, just 81 shy of Ezekiel Elliott’s record set in 2014 (476). Fletcher’s 459 career postseason rushing yards are second-most of any ACC player this century behind P.J. Daniels of Georgia Tech’s 535.

• Miami is one of 10 FBS teams that have improved their scoring defense by over 10 points per game from the 2024 season to the 2025 season (-11.3 per game) and was third among “power conference” teams in year over year improvement

• In a measurement of “defensive mayhem” – which charts the percentage of plays where a defense forces the opposition into either a sack, tackle for loss, interception or a fumble that is recovered by the defense – the Hurricanes rank No. 10 in FBS with a percentage of 12.97%. UM’s 1.15 points-per-possession average is No.7 in FBS.

• Miami’s defensive end tandem of Rueben Bain, Jr., and Akheem Mesidor have been the top defensive end tandem in the country through conference championship weekend, and both were named to the All-ACC First Team. Among 250 defensive ends across Power-4, Bain is the No. 2 overall edge player by Pro Football Focus (93.1), while Mesidor ranks fifth (92.1). Both are considered among the top edge rush prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft. In PFF’s “run defense” grades among Power-4, Bain is fifth (87.1) while Mesidor is third (90.0). Bain is fifth by PFF in Power-4 “pass rush” (92.1), and Mesidor seventh (also 91.6). Bain is second in PFF pressures (80).

• Miami has outscored opponents 30-3 in the first quarter in eight games since Nov. 1 and has not allowed a point in the first quarter of four straight games – Miami’s longest streak since a five-game run in 2016.

• DB Bryce Fitzgerald is tied with Indiana’s Louis Moore for the Power-4 lead with six picks, ranking second in all of FBS.