It all comes down to this.
The biggest IU Athletics moment in decades. The biggest moment ever?
In the College Football Playoff national championship matchup, the No. 1 Hoosiers (15-0) will face No. 10 Miami (13-2) on Monday, Jan. 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (ESPN). The game marks the third all-time meeting of these programs. They played in 1964 and 1966, and the series is tied 1-1.
Indiana and Miami have been waiting a long time for this.
The Hurricanes were once a national powerhouse. They have won five national titles — but none since 2001. IU has never won it all, and the program has not played in a game when winning a title was possible.
But each team’s history is irrelevant. It’s all about the here and now, and Indiana will take the field as the favorite.
Most sports books have IU around a 7.5-point favorite over Miami in the final.
In the analytical models, ESPN’s Football Power Index gives No. 1 Indiana a 68.3% chance to beat No. 10 Miami. ESPN’s SP+ model like Indiana by 11.1 points.
Miami beat three CFP top-7 teams to get here: No. 7 Texas A&M (on the road), No. 2 Ohio State, and No. 6 Ole Miss. The Hurricanes also beat CFP No. 11 Notre Dame during the regular season.
Miami’s two losses came during a late October/early November three-game stretch. They lost at home to Louisville, and on the road at SMU. Both of those teams finished 9-4. Miami has won seven games in a row.
FPI says Miami played the 12th-hardest schedule this season, while IU played the 15th most difficult slate. Meanwhile IU has the No. 1 strength of record, and Miami No. 3. The lone common opponent is Ohio State. Both teams beat the Buckeyes by similar margins.
Miami is led by head coach Mario Cristobal, who is in his fourth season in charge of the Hurricanes. Cristobal is 35-18 in those four seasons with Miami, and 97-78 overall as a head coach. The 55-year-old also had head coaching stints at Florida International and Oregon.
Miami is No. 30 nationally in scoring offense, putting up 31.6 points per contest. Indiana is the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense at 11.1 points allowed per game.
The Hurricanes are No. 5 in scoring defense, allowing just 14.0 points an outing. IU is No. 2 in scoring offense at 42.2 points per contest. The most points scored by any team against Miami this season was 27 by Ole Miss in their CFP semifinal contest.
6-foot-4 and 225-pound senior quarterback Carson Beck has completed 73.3 % of his throws for 3,581 yards, with 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. He only has two interceptions in their last seven games. Beck has been sacked 15 times this season, including nine times in the last four games. Including sacks, he has rushed for just 50 yards and two touchdowns this season.
PFF grades Miami as having the No. 7 offense, the No. 4 defense, and the No. 49 special teams in the country.
The early forecast for next Monday calls for a high of 73, low of 57, with mostly sunny skies and just a 3% chance of rain. We’ll check back on this as the game gets closer.
We will of course have much more on this game in the days to come.
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