What does a 12-3 start and 3-1 record in the Big Ten mean for Indiana’s outlook in March?
Roughly halfway through the 2024-25 season, IU basketball is squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble according to the most recognizable name in bracketology.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi issued an updated bracket projection on Tuesday morning, and he includes the Hoosiers as part of his first four teams out of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. And that actually reflects progress. Prior to their win at Penn State Sunday, the Hoosiers were in just one of 48 brackets at bracketology aggregator Bracket Matrix.
While their record looks the part of a tournament team, what is holding the Hoosiers back at the moment?
The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) is one of the resources available to the committee in the selection, seeding and bracketing process. The NET has two components: the Team Value Index, which is based on game results and factors the result, the game location and outcome. The other component is net efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), which is adjusted to account for the strength of the opponent and the location of the game.
In English, it’s not just if you win or lose, it’s how you win or lose vs. what was projected.
In the current NET, Indiana is ranked No. 56, and as the components of the NET suggest, that ranking is primarily a result of how IU performed against expectations in their games. Losing by 28 points to NET No. 39 Louisville on a neutral court is probably the single-most detrimental aspect of Indiana’s resume. But single-digit wins over No. 199 Winthrop and No. 202 Chattanooga don’t help either.
Indiana’s road win at No. 48 Penn State was a step in the right direction and their best win on the resume to this point. It qualifies as a Quad-1 win according to the NET’s formula.
Using the quadrant system, the quality of wins and losses are organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses are very important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding. Right now, IU is 1-3 in Quad-1 games, and 10-0 in Quads 3 and 4. They jumped nine spots — from No. 65 to No. 56 in the NET after last week’s wins over Rutgers and Penn State.
So things can change rather quickly. And there will be plenty of opportunities to pick up more Quad-1 wins.
Here is how Indiana’s remaining 16 regular season games would be counted in the Quads if played today. The schedule includes 11-straight Quad-1 contests beginning Saturday at Iowa:
- vs. USC – Quad-3
- at Iowa – Quad-1
- vs. Illinois – Quad-1
- at Ohio State – Quad-1
- at Northwestern – Quad-1
- vs. Maryland – Quad-1
- at Purdue – Quad-1
- at Wisconsin – Quad-1
- vs. Michigan – Quad-1
- at Michigan State – Quad-1
- vs. UCLA – Quad-1
- vs. Purdue – Quad-1
- vs. Penn State – Quad-2
- at Washington – Quad-2
- at Oregon – Quad-1
- vs. Ohio State – Quad-2
The Big Ten is not elite at the top, but as evidenced by that gauntlet, there is plenty of depth to the league. In total, Lunardi is predicting 11 teams from the Big Ten will make the tournament at the moment.
For Indiana, it all just means opportunity right now. If they can start picking off Quad-1 wins and stay around .500 in that category, much of what we’ve seen to this point will be mitigated, and they’ll work their way off the bubble.
For complete coverage of IU basketball, GO HERE.
The Daily Hoosier –“Where Indiana fans assemble when they’re not at Assembly”
- You can follow us on Twitter: @daily_hoosier
- Find us on Facebook and Instagram
- Seven ways to support completely free IU coverage at no cost to you.
