When Indiana returns to the field next weekend, a top-20 matchup against USC awaits. The Trojans are on the uptick after a win over Ohio State, and now they’ve got a chance to play their way into the College Football Playoff.
But No. 4 currently in the CFP rankings, the Hoosiers appear to control their own destiny as it relates to a first-round bye in the playoff.
With so much on the line, will head coach Curt Cignetti really consider replacing his multimillion dollar quarterback with a seven-year journeyman?
For a number of reasons, that question seems unavoidable.
Still solidly in contention to repeat as national champions, Cignetti faces the biggest personnel decision of his three-year tenure in Bloomington.
Here are some of the factors he’ll have to consider.
IS JOSH HOOVER HEALTHY?
This will be the initial question entering game week for USC. Cignetti has already benched an unhealthy/ineffective Hoover, so if he’s still limited, it wouldn’t make much sense to try again what wasn’t working. We don’t have the full explanation for why the change was made at halftime against Minnesota, and it probably isn’t an either/or situation. Hoover was both hurting and ineffective. That seems pretty clear.
If his shoulder or whatever/what all is ailing Hoover is still an issue on Monday, then it would only make sense Wilson gets more first team reps in practice. After all, a lack of experience is one of the biggest drawbacks when it comes to Wilson.
IS WILSON REALLY READY FOR THIS STAGE?
Although he’s been in college football for seven years, Wilson has only started one full season — in 2023 at Old Dominion. In his career he has only attempted 434 throws — less than Hoover’s total attempts (471) in 2024 alone.
And it’s worth noting, Wilson wasn’t even IU’s second-string quarterback a year ago, although Alberto Mendoza had an advantage due to his knowledge of the playbook.
As a passer for his college career, Wilson has completed just 57.6% of his throws with 26 TDs and 11 INTs.
We have a tendency to focus on what went right after a win and lose sight of what went wrong.
Yes he made some huge throws in big moments, but Wilson only completed 9 of 17 passes vs. Minnesota. Indiana didn’t score a touchdown in regulation. He put the ball in harm’s way a few times. The game easily could have been lost before it was won. Here’s a sampling of some of his mistakes.
Wilson hasn’t had the benefit of much in the way of game week preparation or first team reps. But the Golden Gophers hadn’t really prepared for Wilson either. USC will prepare for both quarterbacks. The dynamics could change based on a week of preparation for both sides.
IS HOOVER THINKING TOO MUCH?
You’ll recall the offseason discussion centering around Hoover focused on his propensity to turn the ball over at TCU. He had 33 career interceptions coming into this season, and Cignetti and TCU coach Sonny Dykes even got into a back-and-forth about that.
After all that noise — and Cignetti’s track record for improving the efficiency of quarterbacks — the pressure was on for Hoover to not throw interceptions this season. And he hasn’t. But he hasn’t been accurate at times.
Hoover was injured in the second half against Ohio State, but his accuracy troubles started before that contest.
Against respectable but not elite Northwestern and Nebraska defenses, he completed just 60.1% of his throws.
Cignetti gave a blunt assessment on his radio show last night.
“Offensively, we are not producing like we have the last two years,” Cignetti said. “Our consistency is not there right now.”
The numbers back him up.
IU is averaging 32 points per game after posting 41 a contest each of the last two seasons. Their third-down conversion rate is down 16 percentage points year-over-year.
Indiana’s touchdown percentage in the red zone is just 64.7%, good for just 55th nationally. They were at 72.7% and No. 12 a year ago, and 79.7% and No. 2 in 2024.
Hoover was a gunslinger at TCU. Are his accuracy struggles in part because he’s worried about making a mistake? Maybe he feels the pressure of stepping into the immense shoes of Fernando Mendoza more than we realize?
If a healthy Hoover were to lose his starting role to Wilson, it might be due to these factors.
HOOVER IS THE MORE PROVEN PROCESSOR AND PASSER
Hoover’s inaccuracy has been more about missing open receivers than making bad reads and forcing the ball into tight windows. He has more live reps in the offense than Wilson, and thus more experience processing the field. It’s still entirely possible Hoover regains his throwing touch down the stretch.
And Hoover has a career body of work that suggests he’s capable of being better in the passing game than Wilson.
Hoover has completed 64.4% of his career throws against a higher level of competition than Wilson’s 57.6% largely against Group of Six foes. Despite his reputation for interceptions, Hoover’s career TD to INT ratio of 2.6 is better than Wilson’s 2.4, again against better competition.
WILSON IS THE BETTER RUNNER
When he pulled the ball and ran for a 43-yard score against North Texas, Wilson hit a top-end speed of 20.5 miles per hour according to Reel Analytics. That’s actually faster than how fast they measured Charlie Becker in a similar clip. Is Wilson’s top-end speed really higher than Becker? Probably not, but Wilson is certainly fast enough to make some game-changing plays with his feet, while Hoover is more of a serviceable runner.
Wilson as a threat to run the ball would likely benefit the overall running game, as he’ll keep defenders guessing with the threat to pull the ball and take off. And he can scramble for big chunks in the passing game as well, especially against man coverage.
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