A near consensus over/under win total for Indiana has emerged in recent days across the popular betting platforms and sports books.
They’re all at 8.5.
Now that number might be a bit surprising to some as the Hoosiers come off an 11-win season and appear to have rebuilt and maybe even improved the roster for the 2025 campaign.
First, let’s stop and admire where things stood a year ago, when IU’s over/under win total was pegged at 5.5.
There is consensus belief in a 55% increase in wins by Indiana compared to what was expected a year ago despite what arguably is a more difficult schedule in 2025. Said differently, the program has only reached eight wins in a season seven times since it started in 1887, but that is the expectation in 2025.
So whether or not you believe 8.5 is the right number, the expectations for IU football have increased dramatically in just a year. We’ll call this the Curt Cignetti effect.
But before your love for Cignetti and the future of the program propels you to rush out and bet the house on the over, you might want to consider how the skeptics are viewing IU this season. An 8.5 over/under suggests there are plenty of people expecting eight wins or less.
Fox’s resident betting guru Chris “The Bear” Fallica is in that category. Here’s what he said about IU while picking the Hoosiers to finish under 8.5 wins:
Indiana’s non-conference schedule is as laughable as it was last season during its magical 11-2 season. Old Dominion, Indiana State and Kennesaw State are the sacrificial lambs this season, but after having road games at UCLA, Northwestern and Michigan State last year (along with a blowout loss at Ohio State), the Hoosiers have to go to Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
Assuming IU loses at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State, it would have to run the table against Illinois, Michigan State, UCLA, Maryland, Wisconsin and Purdue to hit nine wins.
The Hoosiers were third in the nation in turnover margin last year, turning it over just nine times. Is that going to happen again, even with the addition of one of the better portal quarterbacks, Fernando Mendoza from Cal?
Here is Indiana’s full schedule for the 2025 season:
Aug. 30 – Old Dominion
Sept. 6 – Kennesaw State
Sept. 13 – Indiana State
BIG TEN:
Sept. 20 – vs. Illinois
Sept. 27 – at Iowa
Oct. 11 – at Oregon
Oct. 18 – vs. Michigan State
Oct. 25 – vs. UCLA
Nov. 1 – at Maryland
Nov. 8 – at Penn State
Nov. 15 – vs. Wisconsin
Nov. 29 – at Purdue
A 3-0 start seems like a certainty here. If that doesn’t happen, all bets are off — pun intended. The three road games everyone is talking about are Iowa, Oregon and Penn State. Those will be very difficult games, but the Hoosiers could lose them all and still hit nine wins. And an IU win in one of those games would not come as a complete shock after last year’s success.
But it’s the other six games that will most likely determine which side of 8.5 IU falls. Indiana will probably be favorites in all of them (Illinois will be close), but Fallica is right, running that table won’t be easy.
So where do you stand? Over or under 8.5?
In any event bet responsibly. Or better yet, just sit back and enjoy this brave new world of IU football.
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