Indiana would have had an easier postseason path in 2024 under the new College Football Playoff format.
The College Football Playoff (CFP) Management Committee voted to unanimously Thursday to modify the seeding and bye policies of the 12-team Playoff for the 2025-26 season.
The new policy will guarantee the five highest-ranked conference champions a place in the Playoff, but will no longer include a bye for the four highest-ranked champions. The 12-team bracket will now be seeded directly based on the final ranking of the CFP Selection Committee, with the four highest-ranked teams receiving a first-round bye. If one or more of the five highest-ranked conference champions are ranked outside the top 12, that team or teams would move up to the 12th seed, 11th seed, etc., based on the number of conference champions outside the top 12.
The teams ranked Nos. 5-12 will play in the CFP First Round with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds either on campus or at other sites designated by the higher-seeded institution (i.e. – No. 12 at No. 5, No. 11 at No. 6, No. 10 at No. 7 and No. 9 at No. 8.).
The four highest-ranked teams will be assigned to Playoff Quarterfinals bowls on Selection Day in ranking order and in consideration of current contract bowl relationships (for example: if the highest-ranked team is from the Big Ten, that team would be assigned to the Rose Bowl Game).
Under the prior format, the top-four conference winners received first round byes. That bumped teams like Indiana out of a first-round hosting position. Instead, Indiana traveled to eventual national runner-up Notre Dame for their CFP opener.
Here’s how the 2024 bracket would have looked using the new format, via Bill Connelly on X:
IU would have been a heavy favorite at home against Boise State. Connelly’s SP+ model says the Hoosiers would have won by 12.5 points, and had a 78.3% win probability.
If the Hoosiers beat Boise State, they would have gone on to face Big Ten champ Oregon at the Rose Bowl.
The tournament will continue to be 12 teams in 2025. Negotiations for an expanded format for 2026 and beyond are ongoing.
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