Indiana has had one player chosen as the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.
And it has been a minute.
Richard Corbett “Corby” Davis stands alone as the only IU football player to be selected as the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. He was taken by Cleveland with the first choice in 1938.
Could IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza be the next Hoosier to go No. 1?
ESPN is telling you there’s a chance.
That outlet’s Jordan Reid placed 14 players in three categories as it relates to becoming the No. 1 pick — serious contenders, potential risers and longshots. He places Mendoza in the same category as the player who ended up No. 1 overall in April, Miami’s Cam Ward.
Here’s what Reid says about Mendoza’s chance to go No. 1 at the 2026 NFL Draft in Pittsburgh next April:
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 12%
Why he could be the top pick: Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana, where he enters a quarterback-friendly offense. Kurtis Rourke transitioned from the MAC to Curt Cignetti’s offense and was drafted in the seventh round of this past draft. The ceiling for the 6-foot-5, 225-pound Mendoza is even higher.
“I really liked Mendoza’s tape,” an NFC area scout said. “He’s the one to circle that could be a bigger riser, and Cignetti has a great track record with transfer QBs.”
Mendoza threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns with six interceptions and blends a strong arm with plus mobility for his size. He can stand and deliver in the pocket with ease and is extremely accurate — his 5.1% off-target percentage last season was the best in the FBS. He also excelled throwing outside of the pocket, with a 91.1 QBR. Sometimes he’ll break the pocket prematurely instead of allowing concepts to fully develop, so scouts would like to see him be more patient in those situations.
Obviously there’s no science behind giving Mendoza a 12% chance to be No. 1, but the real story here is that he’s in the conversation, and opening eyes in the NFL.
In a separate ESPN piece this week, the outlet named Mendoza IU’s “X factor” for the 2025 season.
ESPN says IU is the No. 17 team nationally in their post-spring power rankings. Their Eli Lederman says Mendoza can make or break the Hoosiers this fall:
Can Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, take another jump in 2025? Among all the variables that could potentially lift — or let down — the Hoosiers’ in Year 2 under coach Curt Cignetti, none feel more important than this. Mendoza became a beacon of a spirited (if ultimately underwhelming) 6-7 campaign for the Bears last fall, when he completed 68.7% of his passes (12th best nationally among QBs with at least 100 passing attempts) in his first full season as a starter. Mendoza has big shoes to fill after Kurtis Rourke motored Indiana’s record-setting offense to the nation’s second-best points per game tally (41.3) in 2024. But Mendoza should be playing behind a sturdier offensive line in 2025, and there are plenty of playmakers within an intriguing Hoosiers skill position group led by veteran receiver Elijah Sarratt. If Mendoza can find another gear operating a more favorable situation this fall, it could go a long way toward pulling Indiana back into playoff contention.
Indiana opens the 2025 season on Aug. 30 when they host Old Dominion in Bloomington.
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