With Selection Sunday now less than three weeks away, we are once again taking a weekly look at IU basketball’s chance to make the Big Dance.
And there’s just no way around it — the Hoosiers are squarely on the March Madness bubble.
Indiana remains likely in the NCAA Tournament despite an 0-1 week that featured a blowout loss that was not helpful to the cause. One thing is certain — they’ll need more wins to stay comfortably in the field. At least two, probably three.
Once again, the NET rankings serve as the primary sorting tool for Division I men’s basketball, and they play an important role in establishing a team’s resume.
The 2025-26 men’s basketball season marks the eighth year of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams.
Two main tools are utilized in the NET rankings. The Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating similar to KenPom/Torvik. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played.
Using the quadrant system, the quality of wins and losses are organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.
Over the last week, IU suffered a Quad 1 loss at Purdue. Here is their current record as of Feb. 23 by Quadrant:
- Quad 1: 2-10
- Quad 2: 2-0
- Quad 3: 6-0
- Quad 4: 7-0
Consideration is also given to “Quad 1A” performance, which are games against the top 15 ranked teams at home, top 25 on a neutral court, and top 40 on the road. IU is currently 1-7 in those games.
Currently Indiana is ranked No. 36 in the NET after opening at No. 11 in early December. The No. 36 team on Selection Sunday last year was North Carolina, a No. 11 seed that played in the First Four. It’s rare, but teams ranked higher than Indiana have missed the tournament, including No. 29 Indiana State in 2024, and No. 33 N.C. State in 2019.
At Bracket Matrix, Indiana is included in all 121 projections of the field with an average seed of 9.72 and the top No. 10 seed. That’s .18 of a seed worse better than last week. The site has not been updated since Feb. 20 (i.e. before the Purdue game), but that contest should not meaningfully impact IU’s chance to make the tournament.
The NET isn’t the only measurement tool the NCAA Selection Committee considers. There are actually seven. Here is where IU ranks in each of them. As you can see, the Hoosiers are trending down, and into dangerous waters.
(week over week change shown in parenthesis, + is an improvement)
- NET – 36 (-2)
- Torvik – 30 (-6, Torvik gives IU a 88.8% chance to make the field)
- Wins Above Bubble (WAB) – 43 (-4)
- KenPom – 41 (-5)
- Basketball Power Index (BPI) – 30 (-3)
- KPI – 54 (-6)
- Strength of Record – 42 (-4)
REMAINING SCHEDULE
The Hoosiers have good opportunities remaining to enhance their NCAA Tournament resume, including two Quad-1 games remaining. Here’s their remaining schedule:
- vs. Northwestern (Q3)
- vs. Michigan State (Q1)
- vs. Minnesota (Q3)
- at Ohio State (Q1)
- Big Ten Tournament
You can always find links to the key metrics here, or on the IU basketball drop down menu above:
Rankings Page: Links to the Top NCAA Men’s Basketball Ranking Services Including the NET
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