Somehow, some way, Indiana clings to life as a bubble team in the 2026 NCAA Tournament field.
Does anyone really want to be in this thing?
Here’s the latest look at IU basketball’s outlook for making the March Madness field. It’s more promising than what you were probably expecting:
IN THE NET
Using the NCAA’s quadrant system, the quality of wins and losses are organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking:
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
Over the last week, IU suffered a Quad 1 loss at Ohio State, and a picked up a Quad 2 win at home over Minnesota. Some of their prior wins and losses have relocated based on the recent performance of those teams. Here’s IU’s current record in the Quads:
- Quad 1: 3-11
- Quad 2: 3-2
- Quad 3: 5-0
- Quad 4: 7-0
Consideration is also given to “Quad 1A” performance, which are games against the top 15 ranked teams at home, top 25 on a neutral court, and top 40 on the road. IU is currently 2-9 in those games.
Currently Indiana is ranked No. 37 in the NET after opening No. 11 in early December. The No. 37 team on Selection Sunday last year was No. 10 seed Utah State. Last year’s No. 36 team North Carolina was an 11-seed, and the No. 38 team Creighton was a No. 9 seed.
BRACKET PROJECTIONS
At Bracket Matrix on Monday morning, Indiana is included in 40 of 79 unique projections of the field with an average seed of exactly 11 (10.96 last week). IU is the sixth No. 11 seed (i.e. last team in the field), effectively making them a First Four team. Most of the latest bracket updates at Bracket Matrix were made on March 8, after IU’s loss at Ohio State. All updates were made by some point on March 7.
KEY METRICS
The NET isn’t the only measurement tool the NCAA Selection Committee considers. There are actually seven. Here is where IU ranks in each of them.
(Indiana’s week over week change shown in parenthesis, + is an improvement, – a decline)
- NET: 37 (+4)
- Torvik: 29 (+6, Torvik gives IU a 52% chance to make the field, about the same as last week)
- Wins Above Bubble (WAB): 47 (+3)
- KenPom: 41 (+2)
- Basketball Power Index (BPI): 36 (+2)
- KPI: 65 (+2)
- Strength of Record: 46 (+2)
OTHER BUBBLE TEAMS
If you want a list of teams to root against this week during conference tournament action, here they are:
- N.C. State
- Central Florida
- Missouri
- Texas
- SMU
- Santa Clara
- VCU
- Auburn
- Stanford
- Virginia Tech
- New Mexico
- Cincinnati
- California
- Oklahoma
- San Diego State
REMAINING SCHEDULE
The Hoosiers final opportunities to make the field are in this week’s 2026 Big Ten Tournament. Go here for the bracket:
- vs. Northwestern (Quad 2) or Penn State (Quad 3)
- vs. Purdue (Quad 1, if win game one)
- vs. Nebraska (Quad 1, if win game two)
- TBD
You can always find links to the key metrics here, or on the IU basketball drop down menu above:
Rankings Page: Links to the Top NCAA Men’s Basketball Ranking Services Including the NET
For complete coverage of IU basketball, GO HERE.
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