Don’t worry, talking season is almost over.
The first FBS college football game of the 2026 season kicks off Saturday at Noon ET, and your reigning national champion Indiana Hoosiers start the 2026 season exactly one week later.
But until then, there’s a bit more preseason noise to discuss.
Here’s where ESPN’s SP+ computer model has the Hoosiers in its final update, along with a look at some power rankings and postseason projections by the network.
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FINAL SP+ RANKINGS
In Bill Connelly’s final churn of the SP+ computer model, Indiana is ranked No. 5 behind No. 1 Ohio State and then Oregon, Notre Dame and Georgia.
This is an entirely algorithmic projection, so you can save any frustration for the next two sections. If we’ve had one beef with Connelly’s model in recent years, it has been that it places too much emphasis on past performance in the era of the transfer portal, and especially when a coaching change happens. Most of that noise is out of the system as it relates to Indiana since Curt Cignetti was hired.
Connelly’s model ranked IU as having the No. 7 offense, the No. 4 defense and the No. 22 special teams. With the No. 32 strength of schedule, SP+ computes an average expected win total of 10 even for the Hoosiers.
Returning production is a key aspect of Connelly’s model and likely explains their slide from No. 1. Although it includes incoming transfers, the Hoosiers rank No. 35 nationally with 60% returning production, including 54% on offense (No. 71) and 66% on defense (No. 13). Of course those offensive numbers underestimate guys like Charlie Becker, Khobie Martin and Lee Beebe, Jr., all who no one in Bloomington is doubting right now. There are still legitimate questions at tight end, however.
From the final SP+ of 2025 when IU was No. 1, the Hoosiers have fifth-largest overall regression in the model. Here’s how Connelly describes that:
“I guess it makes sense if, after your greatest season in history, you’re expected to fall back a bit. It sure seems like Curt Cignetti nailed another great transfer class, though. The Hoosiers will have a shot at creating something great again.”
For what it’s worth, the SP+ model says BYU is No. 21. Keep that in mind…
POWER RANKINGS
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach ranked seven teams ahead of Indiana in his preseason power rankings. Here’s what he said about IU after placing them in the No. 8 spot:
There’s no question that Curt Cignetti has built one of the best programs in the FBS in only his third season at Indiana, and you don’t even have to Google him to find out anymore. The Hoosiers have to replace Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza at quarterback. Josh Hoover (TCU) doesn’t have Mendoza’s mobility, but he’s more than capable of doing the job. But can he cut down the turnovers that plagued him while playing for the Horned Frogs?
Who does Schlabach have ahead of IU? No. 1 Ohio State, followed in order by Georgia, Notre Dame, Oregon, Texas, BYU and Miami.
Wait. Did that say BYU? Seriously? That feels more like a safe bet on a team that lucked out on an easy schedule than any real attempt at a power ranking. But anyway…
CFP AND BOWL PROJECTIONS
Kyle Bonagura and Schlabach also did some 2026-27 preseason College Football Playoff and bowl projections.
Bonagura has Indiana as a No. 4 seed and thus receiving a bye in the CFP. He predicts they’ll face Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl and win that game before going on to lose to Ohio State in the national semifinals.
Schlabach thinks IU will host its first CFP game, taking on No. 9 Texas Tech as the No. 8 seed. He then says the Hoosiers will lose to No. 1 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.
Both predict a Notre Dame vs. Ohio State national title game.
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