Indiana and USC are both coming off much needed bye weeks and now preparing for a top-20 matchup at Memorial Stadium.
College Football Playoff No. 4 Indiana (8-1) will take on No. 20 USC (7-2) Saturday in Bloomington (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).
This will be the first meeting between the programs since USC joined the Big Ten. The teams last played in 1982. USC is the only Big Ten team IU has never defeated. The Trojans lead the all-time series 4-0, including a 14-3 win at the 1967 Rose Bowl.
USC is led by 5th-year head coach Lincoln Riley. He is 97-30 in 10 overall seasons as a head coach, including five years at Oklahoma before he arrived in Los Angeles. Riley is 15-9 in the Big Ten, and he has led his teams to a bowl game every year he’s been a head coach.
The Trojans are coming off a win over Ohio State, and their other noteworthy win this season came at Penn State. Their losses were at home against Oregon, and at Wisconsin.
Riley is the offensive play-caller. The Trojans are tied with IU at No. 39 in scoring offense at 32.4 points per game. The rushing offense is just No. 107 at 129.3 yards per game, while the passing offense No. 12 at 294.4 yards per game.
Riley hired veteran coach Gary Patterson as his new defensive coordinator during the offseason. Patterson was the head coach at TCU for 22 years and most recently held consulting roles at Texas and Baylor. The Trojans rank No. 66 in scoring defense at 24.2 points allowed per game. They’ve been more susceptible against the the pass (No. 80) than the run (No. 40).
PFF grades USC as having the No. 5 offense and No. 85 defense in the country.
Jayden Maiava might just be the best quarterback IU has faced all season. The 6-foot-4 Hawaiian has completed 66.9% of his throws for 2,524 yards with 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He hasn’t been a big-time runner, carrying it just 14 times for 35 yards — not including the 12 sacks he has taken. Maiava does have a couple rushing scores.
So what’s the outlook for this Saturday in Bloomington? The oddsmakers and computers like Indiana by a touchdown.
As of Monday morning, the gambling forecast is calling the Hoosiers around a 7.5-point favorite. The line opened at around 10.
ESPN’s FPI model gives IU an 78.2% chance to win. The Hoosiers are No. 8 in FPI while USC is No. 16. ESPN’s SP+ model projects a 31-20 Indiana win, and gives it a 74% probability to pull it out.
The early weather forecast for Saturday is calling for a partly cloudy day with 9 mph winds, a 6% chance of rain, a high temperature of 47 degrees and a low of 26. Obviously you’ll want to check back on that later in the week.
We will of course have much more on this game in the days to come.
GAMEDAY TIMELINE
- 9 a.m. Tailgating & Parking Lots Open
- 12 p.m. AAA Championship Tailgate Opens
- 1:05 p.m. The Walk & Gameday Rally
- 2 p.m. Stadium Gates Open
- 3 p.m. Marching Hundred Pregame Show
- 3:30 p.m. Kickoff vs. USC
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