IU football game 13: Early facts, odds, projections, details vs. Ohio State

In it’s first ever appearance in the Big Ten Championship game, Indiana will attempt to win the program’s first outright league title since 1945.

The No. 2 Hoosiers (12-0, 9-0) will face No. 1 Ohio State (12-0, 9-0) Saturday evening at 8 p.m. ET inside Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind. (FOX).  The game marks the first No. 1 vs. No. 2 game involving Big Ten teams since 2006.

Although they are the defending national champions, the Buckeyes are making their first appearance in the conference championship game since 2020.

Indiana trails the all-time series against Ohio State 81-12-5.  The Hoosiers have lost 30 in a row and have not defeated the Buckeyes since 1988.

Ohio State has played two teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 — No. 14 Texas and No. 18 Michigan.  The Buckeyes beat Texas 14-7 in their season-opener, and they beat Michigan 27-9 in their regular season finale.  Texas was their only game decided by less than 18 points.

ESPN’s FPI says Ohio State has played the 46th-most difficult schedule in the nation, compared to No. 45 for IU.  The Hoosiers have the No. 1 strength of record, while Ohio State comes in at No. 2.

The Buckeyes are led by head coach Ryan Day, who is in his seventh full season in charge in Columbus.  Day is 82-10 at Ohio State, his first head coaching position.

OSU is No. 13 nationally in scoring offense, putting up 37 points per contest.  Against national top-25 scoring defenses, Ohio State averaged 21.7 a contest.  Indiana is the nation’s No. 2 scoring defense at 10.9 points allowed per game.

The Buckeyes are No. 1 in scoring defense, allowing just 7.8 an outing.  The most points scored by any team against Ohio State this season was 16 by Illinois.  That was one of just two times a team scored more than 10 points against the Buckeyes.

OSU sophomore quarterback Julian Sayin is a top contender for the 2025 Heisman trophy.  He has completed 78.9% of his throws for 3,065 yards, with 30 touchdowns and just five interceptions.  Sayin doesn’t typically look to leave the pocket.  He has rushed for just 27 yards this season.

PFF grades Ohio State as having the No. 2 offense, the No. 4 defense, and the No. 23 special teams in the country.

So what’s the outlook for Saturday evening in Indianapolis? For the first time since their game at Oregon, the Hoosiers are underdogs.

As of Monday morning, the gambling forecast is calling Ohio State a roughly 5.5-point favorite against Indiana.

ESPN’s FPI model gives IU a 50.6% chance to win.  That’s a slightly surprising output since the Hoosiers are No. 2 in FPI while OSU is No. 1.  ESPN’s SP+ model projects a 26-25 Ohio State win, but gives the Hoosiers a 48% probability to pull it out.

The weather won’t be a factor in this game, as the roof will be closed at Lucas Oil Stadium.  It will be the first indoor game this season for both teams.

We will of course have much more on this game in the days to come.

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