When it comes to Indiana, ESPN’s Football Power Index Rankings (FPI) still seem bogged down by 2021-23 data.
After an 11-2 season and run to the 2024 CFP with losses only to national title game competitors Ohio State and Notre Dame, the model seems to be excessively cautious about the Hoosiers.
In the first update of FPI ahead of the 2025 season, the computer-based ranking system pegs IU as just the No. 31 team in the country.
Before going further, here is how ESPN describes FPI:
“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.
Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules.”
Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams component. These ratings represent the number of points each unit is expected to contribute to the team’s net scoring margin on a neutral field against an average FBS opponent.
In the preseason, ESPN says these components are made up entirely of data from previous seasons, such as returning starters, past performance, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure. That information allows FPI to make predictions beginning in Week 1, and then it declines in weight as the season progresses.
FPI is the tool ESPN uses each week to forecast the winner of college football games by percentage likelihood.
While Indiana seems underappreciated in the model at No. 31, that’s major progress from a year ago when they were ranked No. 77 in the preseason FPI. They are 8 of 18 in the Big Ten compared to 18 of 18 a year ago.
Here’s the way the entire conference is ranked in the preseason FPI:
(FPI ranking, out of 136)
- Ohio State – 4
- Penn State – 5
- Oregon – 6
- Michigan – 17
- USC – 19
- Nebraska – 25
- Washington – 27
- Indiana – 31
- Wisconsin – 38
- Iowa – 39
- Minnesota – 43
- Illinois – 44
- UCLA – 47
- Rutgers – 55
- Michigan State – 59
- Maryland – 61
- Northwestern – 74
- Purdue – 92
Among IU’s nonconference opponents, Old Dominion is ranked No. 97, and Kennesaw State No. 133. Indiana State is an FCS team and thus unranked.
Here are some more Indiana projections, according to FPI. Note the projected win total is a full one less than most Vegas over-under lines.
- Projected record 7.5 wins, 4.5 losses
- Chance to win out: 0.1%
- Chance to win six games: 87.5%
- Chance to win conference: 0.9%
- Chance to reach Playoff: 8.9%
- Chance to make national championship: 0.5%
- Chance to win national championship: .2%
- Remaining strength of schedule: No. 30
For ESPN’s SP+ preseason projections, GO HERE:
A look at IU football and the Big Ten in ESPN’s post-spring SP+ model
For complete coverage of IU football, GO HERE.
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