After spring practice and the final wave of transfers, Indiana is ranked No. 23 in the latest 2025 preseason ESPN SP+ model.
Going into the the 2024 season that same model produced by Bill Connelly had the Hoosiers projected to be the No. 81 team in the nation. They climbed all the way to No. 11 by the end of the historic 11-2 campaign.
SP+ is a data driven attempt to create rankings as opposed to human models like the AP top-25 and coaches poll.
As we warned a year ago and will continue to warn, the SP+ model in our opinion is too heavily overweighted with data from prior seasons. Prior years need to be devalued in the model, at least in scenarios like 2024 Indiana where prior coaching staffs and seasons with limited continuing relevance create excess noise in the current projection.
But with the Hoosiers at No. 23, obviously SP+ is now heavily factoring Indiana’s 2024 College Football Playoff season under Curt Cignetti. Here are the factors Connelly says influence the model:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as humanly possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up about two-thirds of the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health.
The current SP+ says IU has the No. 30 offense, No. 25 defense and the No. 29 special teams. The Hoosiers rank 38th overall in returning production, including 50th on offense and 41st on defense.
Here is how Connelly’s latest SP+ model ranks the 18 members of the Big Ten, with IU projected to be the sixth-best team. Teams Indiana plays in 2025 have a (*) next to them:
1. Ohio State
3. Penn State*
7. Oregon*
10. Michigan
19. Illinois*
23. Indiana
28. Iowa*
30. USC
34. Nebraska
37. Wisconsin*
39. Washington
40. Minnesota
45. Rutgers
51. UCLA*
64. Michigan State*
70. Maryland*
87. Northwestern
101. Purdue*
Indiana’s three nonconference opponents are ranked as follows: Old Dominion (No. 103), Kennesaw State (No. 131), Indiana State (FCS).
The model says on average Indiana should win 8.1 games this year. Connelly says IU has a 9% chance to go 10-2, which would make them a “likely playoff contender.”
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