ESPN’s Bill Connelly has completed his annual preview of the Big Ten fueled by his computer-driven SP+ model.
Indiana finished fourth in the final post-CFP 2024 Big Ten SP+ rankings, behind Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State, and they were No. 11 nationally.
One of the key metrics behind preseason SP+ is returning production from last year, which takes into account the production of an incoming transfer (e.g. – Fernando Mendoza’s production at Cal last year is part of Indiana’s returning production).
At 62%, Indiana has the seventh-most overall returning production in the Big Ten in 2025, and 38th most in the nation. The Hoosiers are fairly balanced when it comes to returning production, with 62% on offense, and 61% on defense.
Cignetti emphasizes production over potential when it comes to the transfer portal, and that approach is apparent in this interesting data point — IU has the most incoming starts from transfers with 166. The next closest Big Ten team is Purdue with 126. When it comes to returning starts from last year’s team, IU has just 116, which is middle-of-the-road in the conference.
The teams with better returning production from the league are Illinois (75%), Rutgers (71%), Wisconsin (67%), Michigan State (66%), Michigan (65%) and Penn State (65%).
As a reminder, here are all of the variables Connelly’s SP+ model utilizes and how he describes them:
1. Returning production. The returning production numbers are based on rosters I have updated as much as humanly possible to account for transfers and attrition. The combination of last year’s SP+ ratings and adjustments based on returning production makes up about two-thirds of the projections formula.
2. Recent recruiting. This piece informs us of the caliber of a team’s potential replacements (and/or new stars) in the lineup. It is determined by the past few years of recruiting rankings in diminishing order (meaning the most recent class carries the most weight). This is also impacted by the recruiting rankings of incoming transfers, an acknowledgment that the art of roster management is now heavily dictated by the transfer portal.
3. Recent history. Using a sliver of information from the previous four seasons or so gives us a good measure of overall program health.
Pulling it all together, SP+ ranks Indiana No. 6 in the Big Ten and No. 23 in the nation for 2025. In the league they are behind Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon, Michigan and Illinois — in that order. The IU offense ranks sixth (No. 30 nationally), the defense ninth (although 25th in the nation) and the special teams fifth (No. 29).
The SP+ system projects 8.1 total wins and 5.2 conference wins for IU against a strength of schedule that ranks No. 31 nationally.
It gives them a 97.7% chance to win six games, a 4% chance to win the conference, and a 2.2% chance to win 11 games. Ohio State, Penn State, Oregon and Michigan combine for a 70% chance of winning the league.
Connelly highlighted 10 conference games that that feature (A) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (B) a projected scoring margin under 10 points. Indiana has two games included: at home against Illinois, and at Penn State.
In his commentary on IU, this stood out from Connelly:
Yes, the Hoosiers’ schedule was lighter than some others, but even against the best offenses on the schedule, they held Ohio State to its third-worst yards-per-play average of the season and its worst yards-per-successful-play average. Notre Dame got a 98-yard touchdown run from Jeremiyah Love in the CFP but otherwise averaged a paltry 4.5 yards per play. This was a good defense, and I bet it will be again. Cignetti brought in four FBS linemen who combined for 24 TFLs last season.
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