Here we go again.
Another season, another year with Indiana on the NCAA Tournament bubble.
With Selection Sunday just over six weeks away, we will once again begin taking a weekly look at the Hoosiers’ chance to make the Big Dance.
And this is an appropriate day to commence the process, because IU’s game Tuesday evening in Bloomington against Purdue represents something they desperately need — a high profile win.
Once again, the NET rankings serve as the primary sorting tool for Division I men’s basketball, and they play an important role in establishing a team’s resume.
The 2025-26 men’s basketball season marks the eighth year of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. Two main tools are utilized in the NET rankings. The Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played.
Using the quadrant system, the quality of wins and losses are organized based on game location and the opponent’s NET ranking.
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding. And IU is a unique case — with no Quadrant 1 wins, and no Quadrant 3/4 losses. Here is their current record as of Jan. 27 by Quadrant:
- Quad 1: 0-6
- Quad 2: 1-1
- Quad 3: 5-0
- Quad 4: 7-0
Currently Indiana is ranked No. 35 in the NET after opening at No. 11 in early December. The No. 35 team on Selection Sunday last year was San Diego, an automatic qualifier. No. 34 Mississippi State was a No. 8 seed, and No. 36 North Carolina was a No. 11 seed.
But despite a somewhat encouraging NET outlook, currently at Bracket Matrix, Indiana is only included in 13 of the 96 projections. In those 13 inclusions, their average seed is 10.92. So the Hoosiers are clearly on the bubble, and in need of some impressive wins.
The NET isn’t the only measurement tool the NCAA Selection Committee considers. There are actually seven. Here is where IU ranks in each of them:
- NET – 35
- Torvik – 26 (Torvik gives IU a 75.1% chance to make the field)
- Wins Above Bubble (WAB) – 43
- KenPom – 37
- Basketball Power Index (BPI) – 27
- KPI – 68
- Strength of Record – 55
REMAINING SCHEDULE
The Hoosiers have plenty of opportunities remaining to build an NCAA Tournament worthy resume, with seven Quad-1 games remaining:
- vs. Purdue (Q1)
- at UCLA (Q1)
- at USC (Q1)
- vs. Wisconsin (Q2)
- vs. Oregon (Q3)
- at Illinois (Q1)
- at Purdue (Q1)
- vs. Northwestern (Q2)
- vs. Michigan State (Q1)
- vs. Minnesota (Q3)
- at Ohio State (Q1)
- Big Ten Tournament
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