The other side of the potential Heisman Trophy battle in the Big Ten Championship Game pits Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin against the best defense he’s faced all season.
Indiana’s defense boasts a 94.8 overall Pro Football Focus grade, which ranks No. 2 in the country. Nearly across the board, in every facet of defense, OSU has not yet seen a unit this strong this year.
Of course, this game is more than just Sayin and Fernando Mendoza. The Buckeyes’ offense is dangerous across the board, and they could have some advantages that could swing the game. But the Hoosiers have plenty of talent defensively, and could have what it takes to get the job done on Saturday.
Here are three key matchups to watch for between Indiana’s defense and Ohio State’s offense in Indianapolis.
Note: All grades and analytic stats referenced are from Pro Football Focus.
D’Angelo Ponds and Jamari Sharpe vs. Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate
Much of the individual attention in this game, when it’s Indiana’s defense and Ohio State’s offense on the field, will center around Ponds and Smith. They’re two of the best cornerbacks and wide receivers in the country, respectively, and they were high school teammates in Miami.
Smith is 22nd in the country with 942 receiving yards on the season, on 72 receptions with 11 touchdowns. He owns a 90.0 overall PFF grade, fifth-highest in the nation among wide receivers. Ponds, meanwhile, has the fifth-best grade among cornerbacks in the country (90.1), and his coverage grade (90.2, fifth-best among corners) is his top mark.
But Ponds may not be shadowing Smith the entire night. IU’s top cornerback plays most of his snaps on the right side of the defense, but still lines up on the left occasionally; Smith has split his reps between the left and right sides relatively evenly. So, really, Jamari Sharpe will be massively important for the Hoosiers. He could go up against Smith at times, and if he isn’t, he’ll be on Carnell Tate — who’s been just as good as Smith. Tate has 793 yards on 44 receptions this season — the 16th-best yards per catch in the country — with eight touchdowns.
Sharpe has had an up-and-down season for Indiana, and this will be his toughest challenge yet. If he has trouble containing his assignment, that could become a matchup that swings the game OSU’s way.
Julian Sayin vs. Indiana pass rush
Indiana’s defensive front is the biggest key to its defense.
The Hoosiers rely on getting consistent pressure up front, both against the pass and the run. Their defensive line has been outstanding this season, but the entire defense has dropped off when they’ve had any trouble in the trenches. The Penn State game is the biggest example over a long game, but there have been signs of that even against worse teams in more lopsided victories. Michigan State caused some issues for IU early in that game by neutralizing the defensive line and playing more east-to-west.
Against Ohio State, specifically, Indiana’s pass rush needs to show up. Sayin’s grades display a massive difference in his performance when facing pressure and when he has time to operate. When Sayin is kept clean, he owns a 94.6 overall grade, the best mark in the country. But under pressure, his grade drops to 71.2 — still sixth-best in the country among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, but still an obvious downgrade.
Sayin hasn’t faced pressure very often this season, so far: only 84 of his 348 dropbacks have come with pressure. The sophomore has completed 78.9 percent of his passes this year, the best completion percentage in the country. But that figure drops to 63.9 percent when the Heisman hopeful faces pressure.
It’s extremely clear that IU defensive coordinator Bryant Haines will need to keep Sayin uncomfortable on Saturday. The Buckeyes, as a team, own a 74.9 pass block grade, good for 34th in the country. IU has seen stronger pass protection than that five times this season — Oregon (No. 1), Iowa (No. 4), Penn State (No. 11), Maryland (No. 24), and Old Dominion (No. 29). This matchup is equally about Indiana winning against Ohio State’s offensive line, and about how Sayin handles the pressure.
Stephen Daley and Mikail Kamara vs. Austin Siereveld and Phillip Daniels
Within the battle up front, Indiana’s edge defenders against Ohio State’s tackles could be the key.
Daley didn’t start for the Hoosiers in the first half of the season — Kellan Wyatt was off to a strong start before suffering a season-ending injury against Michigan State. But Daley was playing well even before he became a starter, and since then, he’s taken off. The senior recorded 18 tackles for loss this season, tied for the most in the country. He grades out well in run defense (83.7, 15th in the nation among edge defenders), which lines up with his stat line, as only 4.5 of those 18 TFLs were sacks.
The Kent State transfer is a versatile weapon on IU’s defensive line — he lines up on the left side more than the right, but he still sees a sizable amount of action on the right side. So he’ll likely face off with both OSU tackles on Saturday, and potentially some tight ends and running backs as well.
Kamara entered this season with lofty goals that haven’t worked out as he’d hoped. He’s posted 4.5 TFLs, one sack, and four official QB hurries. But make no mistake: the redshirt senior has still been impactful. PFF credits him with 46 pressures, tied for 15th in the country and the most of any Big Ten player. Kamara owns solid grades in both phases, 80.8 in run defense and 80.2 in pass rush.
Siereveld is having a good year at left tackle for the Buckeyes. He earned All-Big Ten second team honors, and he’s posted an 84.3 overall grade, ninth in the country among tackles. Right tackle Phillip Daniels has not played as well, with a 68.7 overall grade. The Buckeyes haven’t seen a pass rush graded as high as IU’s (82.5, 17th in the country) since they played Texas in week 1. If the Hoosiers are able to win up front, they’ll give themselves a real shot in this game. That effort starts with Daley and Kamara.
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