College football was getting very predictable for a while.
Alabama. Clemson.
Rinse. Repeat.
Although still among the traditional powers of the sport — LSU, Georgia and Michigan brought some fresh names to the stage from 2019 to 2023 as the talent pool seemed to begin flattening.
But things were still fairly predictable. Those teams didn’t come from nowhere. In fact, no matter which team won the national title in the College Football Playoff era beginning in 2014, they all had one thing in common. They were all in the preseason top-six in the AP Poll.
That was of course, until 2025.
In the preseason AP top-25 released in August ahead of the 2025 season, Indiana was only ranked No. 20. With the luxury of hindsight, that’s difficult to comprehend. And the AP voters were warned. IU was coming off an 11-1 regular season in 2024, and a College Football Playoff appearance by first year head coach Curt Cignetti.
Ranked ahead of Indiana in the 2025 preseason poll was a No. 2 Penn State team that finished 7-6, No. 4 Clemson (7-6), No. 9 LSU (7-6), No. 11 Arizona State (8-5), No. 13 South Carolina (4-8), No. 15 Florida (4-8), and No. 17 Kansas State (6-6).
Oh yeah, and a No. 12 Illinois team that Indiana beat 63-10.
Despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, the voters doubted Cignetti. They also doubted quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who would go on to win the Heisman Trophy and become the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.
So what does this mean for 2026?
Of course the analysis compiled by PFF suggests Indiana’s chances to repeat are better if they’re in the preseason top-five. In their 12-year sample, 55% of preseason top-five teams were also top-five in the final poll. And at least three initial top-five schools stayed there by season’s end in nine of 12 seasons.
Of course AP voters are going to adjust dramatically next month and place reigning national champion Indiana in a much higher spot than preseason No. 20. Indiana is near certain to have its best preseason ranking ever when the poll is released. That was No. 13 in 1968.
But will the Hoosiers be in the top-five or six?
And does it really matter when Indiana has the ultimate outlier in Cignetti?
One thing seems certain — the IU head coach would prefer to be doubted yet again.
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