There are several interesting threads to follow when it comes to IU basketball right now.
Not the least of which are the seemingly at odds but both still relevant topics of the NCAA Tournament and the status of the Mike Woodson era.
But after two losses over the last week and a brutal schedule ahead, we should probably start our weekly look at March bracketology with a reminder about the modified Big Ten Tournament in the 18-team era.
A few schools in the expanded Big Ten will have to sit home and watch the league’s 2025 basketball tournament. As previously reported, this year’s Big Ten Tournament will only include 15 of the 18 conference teams.
Alone in ninth place at the moment, IU (14-7, 5-5) is well above the danger zone at the moment. But the most difficult part of their schedule remains. Indiana’s next six games are all against KenPom top-33 teams (schedule below). Already losers of four of the last five, and rough stretch in the next five will certainly bring missing the Big Ten Tournament to the forefront. That’s a topic difficult to imagine for a preseason top-20 team.
It would be particularly unfortunate if Indiana were to miss the field this year. The 2025 Big Ten Tournament is being played in nearby Indianapolis.
So what about the NCAA Tournament?
Of the 17 prognosticators at Bracket Matrix who have update their projection of the field through Sunday’s action, just two still have IU in the field, both as an 11 seed.
Indiana is currently No. 68 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, with a 2-7 record in Quad-1 games, and a 12-0 record in the other three quads. The Hoosiers fell seven spots in the NET over the last week. Teams ranked in the 60s typically don’t make the field absent a very impressive showing in Quad-1 games.
The model at Bart Torvik gives IU a 6.4% chance to make the field as of Monday afternoon.
In ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest projection (before the Maryland game), Indiana was still one of the “last four out.”
Despite the grim outlook, Indiana isn’t that far from the Field of 68 as things stand at the moment. And that same challenging schedule continues to present an opportunity to bridge the gap.
Here are Indiana’s remaining 12 regular season games:
- at Purdue – Quad-1
- at Wisconsin – Quad-1
- vs. Michigan – Quad-1
- at Michigan State – Quad-1
- vs. UCLA – Quad-2
- vs. Purdue – Quad-1
- vs. Penn State – Quad-2
- at Washington – Quad-2
- at Oregon – Quad-1
- vs. Ohio State – Quad-1
If IU can somehow pick up six or seven wins in the back half of the Big Ten, they’ll probably squeeze their way into the field.
As a reminder, here’s how the NCAA NET rankings divide games into quadrants:
- Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
- Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
- Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
- Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353
You can always find links to the latest NET rankings and other national ranking sites and services here:
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