We spend nearly eight months wondering what the next edition of IU basketball will look like, only to drink from a firehose once the season begins.
With the calendar now flipped to 2024 and Big Ten play about to hit overdrive, it’s a good time to take step back and examine what the advanced data says about these 2023-24 vintage Hoosiers.
First, here’s the big picture for Indiana from three of the main advanced analytic resources, including the NCAA’s NET tool which is used by the NCAA Tournament Committee to help evaluate at-large selections.
- NCAA NET – national overall No. 100 (12th in the Big Ten)
- KenPom – No. 87 (12th in the Big Ten)
- Bart Torvik – No. 94 (12th in the Big Ten)
Those are obviously concerning numbers sitting here on January 2. The team with the worst NET ranking ever to receive an at-large bid was Rutgers in 2022. The Scarlet Knights were No. 77.
Based on KenPom data, Indiana has not finished a season with a team ranked lower than its current ranking since 2010 — when the program will still digging out of the Kelvin Sampson debacle. So it’s clear, despite a 10-3 record and a 2-0 mark in the Big Ten, the Hoosiers aren’t fooling the algorithms.
But with 15 of 18 games remaining against teams ranked higher than they are, Indiana will have plenty of chances to move up.
THE HOLISTIC VIEW
It probably comes as no surprise — the Hoosiers have plenty to clean up on both ends of the floor. Indiana is equal parts mediocre on the offensive and defensive ends.
KenPom says the Hoosiers are the No. 89 most efficient offense, and the No. 86 most efficient defense. By comparison, IU ended last season Nos. 28 and 45, respectively. So the drop-off is clear.
From a tempo standpoint, Indiana’s offensive possessions are lasting an average of 16.7 seconds, good for No. 116, and their defensive possessions are 17.4 seconds, No. 216. A year ago IU was No. 48 and 355 respectively.
OFFENSE
There are some things to like about IU on the offensive end.
Their overall effective field goal percentage (53.4 percent) ranks No. 60 nationally, and that’s fueled by 55.3 percent (No. 41) from 2-point range.
But Indiana is shooting just 31.9 percent (No. 229) from three. A major point of contention right now is IU’s shot volume from long range. Should a team that doesn’t shoot it well shoot more threes? Only 25.7 percent of Indiana’s shots come from behind the arc, a rate that ranks No. 357 nationally (out of 362 Division I teams).
Another major outlier in IU’s offensive profile is how often they get to the free throw line. Free throw attempts are 45.6 percent of field goal attempts — the tenth highest rate in the country. Indiana’s focus on scoring in the paint, both by its big men and guards, contribute to this. But the Hoosiers aren’t capitalizing. They are making just 68 percent of their free throws, and that comes in at just No. 276.
Most of the remainder of IU’s offensive metrics are middle of the road. But here’s one that is a bit troubling. Despite having the third tallest rotation in the country, Indiana is just No. 224 in offensive rebounding rate.
DEFENSE
Indiana’s defensive profile is an inversion of the offense. Opponent 3-point attempts are 42.9 percent of total field goal attempts. Only 45 teams see a higher percentage of threes hoisted against them. Teams are making 34.7 percent of all those threes, that ranks No. 250. And 37.7 percent of all points scored against the Hoosiers are from three, the 14th highest rate in the nation.
While IU has struggled to guard the perimeter, they’ve been pretty good inside. Opponents are only making 47.1 percent of 2-point shots (81st best), and Indiana has a 12.6 percent block rate (No. 44). The Hoosiers are also doing a good job of not sending opponents to the stripe. Opposing free throw attempts make up just 27.1 percent of field goal attempts (No. 62).
Opponents are committing turnovers on just 16.3 percent of possessions. That comes in at just No. 259. Defensive possessions are 1.3 seconds shorter on average than a year ago, and Indiana’s defensive turnover rate is exactly the same as last season, so it seems fairly clear that opposing teams do not have to work as hard to find an open shot. And if you’ve been watching this team all season, you’re probably nodding in agreement.
NOTABLE NUMBERS — THE PLAYERS
Malik Reneau’s fouls called per 40 minutes have dropped from 6.8 to 3.6 year-over-year. His 62.6 percent effective field goal percentage is 71st best in the nation, and he has the highest assist rate on the team (21.9 percent).
Kel’el Ware’s 25.7 percent defensive rebounding rate is No. 37 in the country. He’s only shooting 10-of-31 from two against top-100 opponents, a problem he didn’t have last season.
Mackenzie Mgbako’s 94.4 percent free throw shooting (34-of-36) is No. 15 in the country.
Trey Galloway has played the highest percentage of Indiana’s minutes so far, and that’s in part because he has the lowest fouls called per 40 minutes (1.9) on the team. He is shooting just 52.5 percent from the free throw line and 27.8 percent from three. He made 64.4 and 46.2 percent, respectively, a year ago. He has been very good from two — making 59.7 percent.
Xavier Johnson obviously hasn’t played a lot this season, but he’s drawing a team high 6.0 fouls per-40 while shooting 80 percent from the stripe. He’s shooting 5-of-10 from three and has the highest effective field goal percentage on the team (64).
Anthony Walker draws 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes, the 121st highest rate nationally. Payton Sparks doesn’t play enough minutes to rank, but he draws 7.1 per 40. But could this be hack-a-Sparks? He is shooting just 33.3 percent at the line. Sparks also has the highest block rate on the team at 7 percent, and highest offensive rebounding rate (11.6 percent).
Gabe Cupps has the highest turnover rate (26.7 percent) on the team. He isn’t making a meaningful impact on the offensive end. He’s last on the team in percentage of shots taken while on the floor, and just eighth in assist rate.
Kaleb Banks has stepped into the role of the player who fouls too much. He’s committing a team high 6.5 per 40 minutes.
C.J. Gunn’s 5.9 percent steal rate is the highest on the team by more than 3 percentage points. But his 35.1 percent effective field goal percentage is the worst on the team, as is his 4.1 percent assist rate.
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