ESPN calls the slate of college basketball games during Thanksgiving “Feast Week.”
But with the way Indiana designed its 2024-25 nonconference schedule, the Battle 4 Atlantis could end up being a feast or famine scenario.
The Hoosiers will most likely play three high major opponents in The Bahamas, and definitely at least two. So the time is now to build a resume that will translate to March.
The only other high major opponent scheduled during the entirety of the 11-game nonconference was South Carolina, and the Hoosiers handled that contest at home, 87-71. It was a sign IU will do just fine when the ball tips at the Imperial Ballroom inside The Atlantis Resort on Paradise Island on Wednesday at Noon ET (ESPN).
But there have been both encouraging and concerning aspects to Indiana’s 4-0 start. And they give us clues for what to expect and what to look for in The Bahamas.
PROMISING SIGNS
Much improved free throw shooting: The Hoosiers have started the season 80.8% at the free throw line, good for 16th best in the nation. Compare that to a year ago when IU made just 66.4% and finished 333rd nationally. Five players — Mackenzie Mgbako, Myles Rice, Malik Reneau, Trey Galloway and Bryson Tucker — are shooting 80% or better.
Improved 3-point shooting too: While they’re still not shooting a high volume as a team (344th highest volume as a percentage of total shots), Indiana’s 3-point shooting has improved so far, from 32.4% a year ago to 35.7% on this admittedly young season. That percentage ranks No. 102. Mgbako and Rice have carried the load here, shooting 53.3% and 46.2%, respectively.
Overall defensive efficiency is trending favorably. Indiana ranks No. 26 in overall defensive efficiency. The 41.1% effective field goal percentage they’ve allowed is No. 11. Teams are shooting just 41.5% from two and 27.1% from three. They’ll win a lot of games with numbers like that. But note below the risk in the 3-point volume we’ve seen thus far against IU.
Mgbako, Rice and Tucker are all positives so far. At least three Hoosiers have exceeded varying degrees of expectations thus far. Mgbako is averaging a team high 18.8 points while shooting 58.7% overall and grabbing 6.5 rebounds. Rice is averaging 14.8 points while shooting 58.8% and handing out 4.5 assists. They both played well in the Tennessee exhibition too. And Tucker has shown he can contribute as a freshman, scoring 8 points per game on 50% shooting and adding 3.5 rebounds.
CAUSES FOR CONCERN
Carlyle and Goode’s shooting: Kanaan Carlyle came to IU with a reputation as a scorer, and Luke Goode as a shooter. But thus far neither has had a great deal of success in those areas. To this point Carlyle hasn’t made a meaningful impact on the offensive end, making just 8-of-27 shots from the field, and he hasn’t been to the free throw line at all. Goode has made just 3-of-12 from three so far. Much better shooting from both players is something that can substantially lift the ceiling of this team.
Too many offensive rebounds allowed: Indiana has allowed opponents to rebound 30.3% of their misses. That ranks No. 200 in the nation. And again, the Hoosiers have only played one high major team so far. The issue is part of a larger concern Indiana has not played with consistent effort. And there’s a real risk of losing games against better teams due to second chance points unless major improvements occur.
Defensive 3-point volume cause for concern? We noted above teams are not shooting threes well against IU. But teams are certainly shooting a lot from behind-the-arc against the Hoosiers. 42.1% of opposing shots have come from three, a rate higher than 261 teams in college basketball. Some of the high volume against IU is game planning against their defense, some is defensive breakdowns, and some has come via those offensive rebounds. Indiana hasn’t played elite shooting teams yet. It seems like the Hoosiers could run into a barrage of makes at some point if they don’t clean things up.
Turnover rate is too high: Indiana currently ranks No. 221 in offensive turnover rate at 18.6%. Myles Rice’s 26.7% rate is more than eight percentage points higher than a season ago at Washington State. Oumar Ballo’s 22.4% is nearly six percentage points higher than any of his last three seasons. And Trey Galloway’s 29.5% is nearly 11 percentage points higher than 2023-24.
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